The monitoring period covers the sowing and growing season of main Maize in the South and in the North as well as the planting of irrigated and non-irrigated rice.  Compared with average, the agroclimatic indicators show an increase in rainfall (RAIN +10%) and a drop in both temperature and radiation (TEMP -0.8ºC and RADPAR -8%). With a maximum vegetation condition index of 0.90 and a reduction on the cropped arable land fraction by 1%, the biomass production potential registered an increase of 6%. The country recorded below average crop conditions during the entire monitoring period. The NDVI profiles over the nation reveal below average crop conditions from April to June. Thereafter, however, about 35% of the country registered crop conditions above the average, especially in Borno, Katsina, Zamfana and Sokoto states.  Altogether, CropWatch expects a decrease in the production of maize and rice by 3.8% and 3.2% respectively.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Nigeria is divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ). They are referred to (from north to south and by increasing rainfall) as Sudano-Sahelian, Guinean savanna, Derived savanna and Humid forest zone.

Seasonally dry weather prevailed in the Sudano Sahelian until the beginning of the rainy season in July, when this region experienced favourable crop conditions. VCIx reached 0.91. An increase in rainfall of about 26% above average and a decrease in both temperature and sunshine (TEMP -0.9ºC and RADPAR -6%), led to an increase in biomass index by 18%. CALF dropped 5% compared with the five previous seasons.

Contrary to Derived Savanna, the Guinean Savanna region, registered a reduction in all agroclimatic indicators (RAIN -1%, TEMP -0.8ºC and RADPAR -9%). With CALF reduced by 5.43%, the biomass registered a slight increase of 1%. The NDVI graph indicates crop condition about the average in early April, and unfavourable crop conditions from May to the end of the monitoring period. The maximum VCI for this region was 0.85, and a proportion of about 50% showed VCI values below 0.8.

The average VCI for the Derived Savanna (0.94) results from values between 0.8 and 1 and above, athough the crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that the situation was unfavourable during the entire monitoring period.  Relative to average, a slight increase in rainfall (RAIN +9%) was accompanied by a drop in temperature and radiation (-0.9ºC and -7%, respectively). Both CALF (+0.18%) and BIOMSS (+4%) were close to average.

The maximum VCI of 0.91 suggests favourable crop conditions in the Humid Forest zone. However, the NDVI graph indicates poor crop conditions during the entire monitoring period. Similar to the Guinean Savanna, this region also registered a slight decrease in CALF (-0.5%). The Biomass increased by 3% when compared to past 5YA. The agroclimatic indicators show an increase in rainfall by 12% but both temperature and radiation decrease by 9ºC and 6% respectively. 

In general, the crop conditions reported during this period indicates that in nationwide, the crop conditions were unfavourable, which can justify the decrease in the production of maize and rice registered.

Figure 3.34. Nigeria’s crop condition, April-July 2018 

                                                     (a) Phenology of major crops

          (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI               (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) Soudano-Sahelian region (right) Derived savanna zone region 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) Humid forest zone region (right) Guinean savanna region 

Table 3.65. Nigeria’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2018 

Table 3.66. Nigiria’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July 2018

Table 3.67. CropWatch-estimated maize production for Nigeria in 2018 (thousands tons)