In the Philippines, the main rice crop is currently growing, maize has reached the stage of maturity and is about to be harvested, while the harvesting stage of the secondary rice and maize is over. According to the NDVI profiles for the country, crop condition was below the five-year average.Nationwide, precipitation (RAIN) presents a negative departure of 5% compared with average, accompanied by below average radiation (-2%) and temperature (-0.5°C), which resulted in an decrease of BIOMSS 3% below average.

Based on the VCIx indicator, which mostly exceeded 0.80, favorable crop condition prevailed. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) nation-wide was almost 100%. Considering the spatial patterns of NDVI profiles, 56% of the cropped area experienced average conditions,  but other areas display different profiles including: （1）21.2% of the cropped area experienced average conditions from April to June, after which (in July) conditions suddenly dropped below average; （2）16.7% of the cropped area experienced average conditions from April to early May, below average conditions in the middle of May, but returned to average conditions in June and July; （3） 6.1% of the cropped area experienced average conditions from April to the middle of May, and fluctuations (average-below average) from the middle of May to July.

The behavior of NDVI can be explained mainly by the cloud and low radiation, partially by several typhoons of minor magnitude that affected the Philippines, including Henry, Inday and Josie, etc..Storms brought some heavy and short duration rain, causing flash floods. However, the rain anomaly is negative comparing to the 15-year average (RAIN, -5%). Altogether, the outputs for maize and rice in the country are expected to be below average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Lowlands region, the Hills region, and the Forest region.

The Lowlands region (northen islands) experienced average rainfall, low radiation (RADPAR -4%) and mildly below average temperature (TEMP -0.7°C). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average. BIOMSS was 3% below the average. Altogether, the outputs for maize and rice are expected to be below average.

The Forest region (mostly southern and western islands)  experienced a rainfall deficit (RAIN -7%), mildly below average temperature (TEMP -0.4°C) and marginally above average radiation (RADPAR +1%). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average from the middle of May to July. BIOMSS was 1% below compared to the average for the period and region. Altogether, the outputs for maize and rice are expected to be slightly below average as well.

The hills region (Islands of Bohol, Sebu and Negros) recorded the largest negative rainfall departure (RAIN, -40%), average temperature and below average radiation (RADPAR -1%). According to the NDVI profiles for the region, crop condition was below the five-year average from the middle of June to July. BIOMSS is 24% below the five-year average. Altogether, the outputs for maize and rice are expected to be below average.

The NDVI-based Crop condition development graphs indicate below average conditions over the monitoring period or the last 2-3 months. Crop prospects are generally below average due to rainfall deficit or low radiation, especially rainfall deficit. Current CropWatch estimates indicate drops in maize (7,236 ktons, -5.1% below 2017) and rice (20,033 ktons, -0.8% below 2017).

Figure 3.24.Philippines crop condition, April - July 2018 

                                                              (a) Phenology of major crops

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                   (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Lowlands region (left) and Hills region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Forest Region)

Table 3.59. Philippines agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2018 

3.60. Philippines agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2018 

Table 3.61. CropWatch-estimated maize and rice production for Philippines in 2018 (thousand tons)