The reporting period covers the sowing and growing of maize and spring wheat, and final winter wheat stages before harvest in July. For the whole country, the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was very close to 100%, comparable to the average of the last five years. During the monitoring period, RAIN was 12% below average and both of temperature (16.8°C) and radiation were significantly above average (TEMP +1.8°C, RADPAR +8%). Resulting from dry-hot weather, crops were water-stressed and the potential biomass (BIOMSS) decreased 17% due to water stress.

As shown in the NDVI crop condition development graphs, the NDVI in Poland was below average when compared to the previous 2016-17 season and the last five years, especially from June to July. As NDVI was close to average in May, VCIx was 0.92 for Poland overall.

Crop condition was below average in Poland as a result of dry weather in the period.

Regional analysis

Three Agro-Ecological areas examined more closely for CropWatch include the Central rye and potatoes area, Northern oats and potatoes area, and the Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area. The fourth area (Southern wheat and sugarbeet area) was wetter and the crop condition was slightly better than in the other three areas.

In the Central rye and potatoes area, the crop condition was below the average of last 5 years due to lower rainfall (RAIN -16%) and higher temperature (TEMP +1.8°C), which accounts for the decrease of biomass (BIOMSS -21%) compared to the five-year average. RADPAR was above average (+8%). The area has high CALF (100%) and VCIx (0.92).

The Northern oats and potatoes area experienced the relatively driest weather condition in four areas, with RAIN down 20% and both of TEMP and RADPAR above average (+1.8°C and +9%), resulting in the decreased biomass (BIOMSS -24%).  The area also has high CALF (100%) and VCIx (0.91).

The Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area recorded a decrease in rainfall (RAIN -12%) and a temperature increment (TEMP +1.8°C), leading to decreased biomass (BIOMSS -15%) compared to the five-year average. The area has high CALF (100%) as well as  VCIx (0.87).

Crop conditions in the Southern wheat and sugarbeet area were slightly below the average of the last five years,  with  6% below average RAIN, and warmer (TEMP +1.7°C) weather, resulting in the decreased biomass (BIOMSS -10%). The area has a high CALF (100%) and VCIx (0.94).

In conclusion, both crop condition and BIOMSS were below average across the four areas due to drier weather in the growing period of plants, pointing to an estimated yield and production in 2018 that both slightly decrease over 2017.

Figure 3.25a. Poland phenology of major crops

Figure 3.25b. Poland national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the April to July 2018 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.25c. Poland maximum VCI 

Figure 3.25d. Poland spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2018 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.25f. Central rye and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI(right) Northern oats and potatoes area (Poland) crop (left)

Figure 3.25h. Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI(right)Southern wheat and sugarbeet area (Poland) (left)

Table3.61. Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region,current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2018

Table 3.62. Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2018

Table 3.63. CropWatch-estimated wheat production for Poland in 2018 (thousands tons)