Winter crops

China 2017-2018 total winter crops production (among which wheat accounts for more than 91%) is revised at 126 million tons, the same level as 2016-2017. The revised production is 347 ktons up from previous forecast, mainly contributed by the 1.6% increase of yield thanks to the adequate climatic conditions. Sufficient rainfall during grain filling stage in Henan, the leading winter crops producing province, benefited winter crops and helped crops recover from the winter drought. Average yield was estimated to be 0.6% up from 2016-2017. Shandong, the second winter crops producing province, also received high rainfall in mid-May which narrowed the yield decrease from 5.8% (April forecast) to 4.3% (current estimate).  Table 4.2 provides detailed information for each province.

Table 4.2. China 2017-18 winter crops production (in ‘000 tons) and variation (%) from 2016-17, by province

* Production for Taiwan province is not included.

Table 4.3 lists the latest revision of CropWatch production estimates for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. Additional estimates for different types of rice (grouped by growing seasons) are shown in table 4.4. Nationally, the production of rice is 2% below 2017 because both yield and area dropped 1% compared with 2017. Wheat production remains equivalent to 2017 production. Maize production is 1% up from the 2017 harvest (even if the planted area decrease by 0.6%). Soybean production is 3% up from previous year, due to 2.7% yield increase and 0.6% increase in planted area. It is noteworthy that soybean production is now recovering to the same level as 2012 after years of decline

Maize

Even if the planted area of maize continues to decrease, overall favorable conditions result in 1.5% above 2017’s average yield, especially in Northeast China and the Loess Region where sufficient rainfall benefited maize development and grain filling. The most significant increase of maize production was observed in the semi-arid Loess Region and Inner Mongolia, including Gansu (+9%), Inner Mongolia (+4%), Shaanxi (9%), and Shanxi (7%). Extreme weather conditions (typhoons, strong wind, flooding and drought) negatively impacted the summer crops development in eastern coastal provinces (Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong) and South western China (Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Chongqing).

Rice

CropWatch forecasts the overall rice production for China at 196.4 million tons, 2% below 2017 mainly due to the decrease of planted area. Since most of rice cultivation relies on irrigation, the inter-annual variation of production has been limited for the past ten years. Two percent drop of rice production resulted in 2018 ranking as the lowest production since 2009. Both early rice and late rice production decreased by 1% due to the decreased yield for early rice and both reduced planted area and yield for late rice. While single rice production was 3% below 2017 values because both yield and planted area dropped compared with 2017. Semi-late rice production in Anhui, Chongqing, and Guizhou fell by 7%, 6% and 5%, respectively. A large drop for late rice production was also forecast for Anhui, Guangxi and Hubei. 

Wheat

Wheat production is revised up to 121.5 million tons, equivalent to 2017’s bumper production. Although the wheat planted area shrank by 1.6%, favorable weather conditions between late April and the harvest of winter crops in most of semi-arid areas in the Loess Region led to very good output. Among the provinces, only two spring wheat producing provinces (Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia) and two winter wheat producing provinces (Shandong and Sichuan) outputs less grain than during 2017. The major reason is the lower planted area for spring wheat and lower yield for winter wheat. In all other provinces yield at least equalled 2017 values.

Soybean

The amplitude of inter-annual production variation for soybean is generally larger than for other three crops mainly due to the newly released policies which encourage farmers to keep increasing soybean cultivation. The most significant increase in soybean production was observed in Inner Mongolia and Jilin, with 13% and 11% increase compared with 2017. Both yield and planted area are up from the previous year. The leading soybean producing province, Heilongjiang, is forecasted to produce the same amount of soybean as last year's. The soybean area decreased by 2.0% because of the low income from soybean cultivation and the late release of new policy (after sowing in major producing regions). Favorable conditions benefited soybean development and yield is expected to increase by 2.0%, offsetting the impact of area decrease. Reduced output in Anhui (-4%) and Jiangsu (-8%) is mainly due to the unfavorable conditions brought about by several typhoon since May. 

All summer crops

CropWatch forecasts the total 2018 output of summer crops (including maize, single rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybean, minor cereals, and tubers) at 417.0 million tons, a 0.4% drop from 2017 or 1748 thousand tons in production decrease. The total annual crop production is estimated at 577.3 million tons, down 0.9% from 2017 (2460 thousand tons decrease). 

As late rice is still at an early growing stage, and maize and single rice are at at grain filling in August, CropWatch will further revise the production for each crop type as well as total production in the next bulletin.

Table 4.3, China 2018 production of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean, and percentage change from 2017, by province

* Production for Taiwan province is not included.

Table 4.4. China 2018 early rice, single rice, and late rice production and percentage difference from 2017, by province

* Production for Taiwan province is not included.