本节就我国主要粮食作物稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆的2018年第1季度进出口形势进行分析。

This section analyzes the import and export situation of the rice, wheat, maize and soybean in the first quarter of 2018 in China.

稻谷

第1季度我国稻谷进口77.52万吨，比上年减少减11.0%，主要进口来源国为越南、泰国和巴基斯坦，分别占进口总量的46.9%、32.3%和12.3%，进口额为4.26亿美元。稻谷出口33.71万吨，主要出口到韩国、科特迪瓦和莫桑比克，分别占出口总量的24.3%、14.2%和12.8%，出口额为1.82亿美元。

Rice

In the first quarter, the total import of rice in China was 0.7752 million tons, a decrease of 11.0% compared to the previous year. The imported rice mainly stems from Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan, respectively accounting for 46.9%, 32.3%, and 12.3% of imports. The expenditure for rice import was US$426 million. Total rice exports over the period were 337,100 tons, mainly exported to the Republic of Korea, Côte d'Ivoire, and Mozambique (24.3%, 14.2%, and 12.8%, respectively). The value of the export was US$182 million.

小麦

第1季度我国小麦进口64.17万吨，比上年减少40.6%，主要进口来源国为澳大利亚、哈萨克斯坦和美国，分别占进口总量的28.1%、19.0%和11.5%，进口额为1.86亿美元。小麦出口9.04万吨，主要出口到我国朝鲜和香港，出口量分别占出口总量的76.4%和19.4%，出口额为0.38亿美元。

Wheat

Chinese wheat imports in the first quarter of 2018 totaled 0.6417 million tons, down by 40.6% year-on-year. The main sources include Australia (28.1%) , Kazakhstan(19.0%), and the United States (11.5%). Imports amounted to US$186 million. Wheat exports (90,400 tons) went mainly to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (76.4%) and Hong Kong (19.4%). The generated income for wheat export was US$38 million.

玉米

第1季度我国玉米进口55.73万吨，比上年增长81.8%，主要进口来源国为乌克兰和美国，分别占进口总量的95.4%和3.2%，进口额为1.16亿美元。玉米出口0.07万吨，主要出口到美国、加拿大和法国，分别占出口总量的42.9%、28.6%和14.3%，出口额为23.43万美元。

Maize

In the first quarter of 2018, maize imports reached 557,300 tons, an increase of 81.8% over 2017. The main importing countries were Ukraine and the United States, accounting for 95.4% and 3.2% of imports respectively. Imports amounted to US$116 million. The United States(42.9%), Canada(28.6%), and France(14.3%) were the main destinations of Chinese maize exports, reached to 700 tons. The value of the export was US$0.2343 million.

大豆

第1季度我国进口大豆1956.68万吨，同比增长0.2%，主要进口来源国为巴西和美国，分别占进口总量的58.7%和35.4%，进口额为82.16亿美元。大豆出口3.08万吨，同比减少5.2%。

Soybean

In the first quarter of 2018, the total import of soybean was up by 0.2% to 19,566,800 tons in China. Brazil and the United States respectively contributed 58.7% and 35.4%, for a total value of US$8216 million. Soybean exports were 30,800 tons, down 5.2%.

2018年我国主要粮食品种进口展望

利用2017-2018年全球主要国家粮食作物监测的遥感数据，根据农业重大冲击和政策模拟模型，预计2018年主要粮食作物品种进口略有增加趋势。具体如下：

Trade prospects for major grains in China for 2018

Based on the latest monitoring results, China grain imports are projected to increase. The projections are based on remote sensing data and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which is derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project).

稻谷：根据模型预测结果，2018年稻米进口增长9.8%，出口增长20.4%。受中国东盟自贸区协定关税及国内外价差持续扩大等因素影响，我国稻米进口仍将保持一定规模，预计2018年保持增长。由于国内稻米无价格优势，出口保持较低增长。

Rice

According to the model forecast, rice imports and exports increased by 9.8% and 20.4% respectively in 2018. Due to the price differences at home and abroad and the influence of China-ASEAN Free Trade area Agreement, the rice import in 2018 will maintain its growth. Exports will remain a low growth due to the lack of price advantage.

小麦：根据模型预测结果，2018年我国小麦进口增长4.8%，出口减少5.7%。随着国内外价差的缩小，价差驱动型进口减少，国内供需形势有所好转，但是对优质小麦的需求仍将持续，预计2018年小麦进口量稳中增长。

Wheat

According to the model forecast, wheat imports will increase by 3.4%, while exports will decrease by 7.8%. As result the global supply and demand is in a relaxed pattern, global wheat price slightly increased. But the persistence of wheat price difference at home and abroad still exists, wheat imports in 2018 will increase slightly in stability.

玉米：根据模型预测结果，2018年我国玉米进口增加15.3%，出口减少14.7%。目前，全球玉米价格连续下跌，库存进一步下降，供需形势有所好转，受养殖业需求旺盛等因素影响，预计2018年我国玉米进口稳步增长。

Maize

According to the model forecast, maize imports increased by 24.6% in China in 2018, but exports decreased by 9.4%. At present, global supply and demand of maize is relaxed, and the prices of maize perform downward trend. Due to the strong demand for livestock industry, maize imports are expected to increase in 2018.

大豆：根据模型预测结果，2018年我国大豆进口减少5.2%，出口减少1.0%。受国际贸易形势变化等因素影响，预计我国大豆进口减少，但仍保持高位。

Soybean

Soybean imports and exports will decrease by 0.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Under the influence of insufficient domestic production and other factors, imports will remain high. However, under in response to the structural adjustment policies for planting and the changing international context, soybean imports in China will decrease slightly in 2018.

Figure 4.18. Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2018 compared to those for 2017(%)