Introduction

The crisis that has been affecting directly or indirectly about 20 countries in the northern half of the African continent continues to dominate the humanitarian landscape, as countries that have hitherto been mostly calm develop new foci of tension, as with the “anglophone crisis” in Cameroon. The overall reduction in security standards also provides fertile conditions for the reactivation of dormant ethnic and other tensions as in Ethiopia between the Gedeo (SNNPR) and Guji (Oromia) in south-west Ethiopia, or in Mali between the Dogon and Fulani communities, where the unrest lasted into July.

The media and reports by specialised humanitarian institutions reports often refer to the emergencies using more of less conventional terminology such as “Rohingya crisis” in Myanmar, “Ninja insurgency” (Congo DPR)  or the “Venezuela crisis.” There are similarities between the African humanitarian situation and the “Venezuela crisis”, in particular the combination of armed conflict and the movements of displaced persons  across borders, as far as the United States and Mexico in the north and Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Argentina and others in the south. UNHCR insists that most Venezuelans that recently left their country are, technically, no refugees. They nevertheless require host countries to set up ad hoc structures to care for the migrants and contribute to de-stabilising some of the most fragile countries in the region.

The latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report issued by FAO on 7 June 2018, confirms that conflicts continue to aggravate and prolong severe food insecurity in a context where food production is mostly satisfactory. The list of countries that require external food assistance now reaches 39, with the recent addition of Cabo Verde and Senegal. In both countries, unfavourable weather is the main trigger of the poor food situation. According to the East African, the drought in Cabo Verde is the worst since 1977.

Volcanic eruptions

Volcanic eruptions in January on Kadovar Island (Papua New-Guinea) led people to Dandan in east Sepik province where they were still in need of assistance by late May. In Guatemala, the eruption of the Fuego Volcano at the beginning of June affected over 1.7 million people in Sacatepéquez, Escuintla, and Chimaltenango departments. 197 people went missing, 109 were killed and 58 injured, according to early reports. Some 12,407 people have been evacuated and over 4,000 are living in emergency shelters. The volcano produced pyroclastic flows and mud flows which also damaged and destroyed crops. This adds stress to farmer communities which suffered several years of drought: Some sources indicate that more than 100,000 families have lost their maize and bean crops this year.

Drought

Drought is reported from several areas across all continents. In Africa, Cabo Verde and Senegal were already mentioned above. Neighbouring Sahelian areas in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger are affected as well and have experienced losses of crops and livestock. Unrest and rising food prices contribute to a deteriorating food security situation, the worst since 2012.

In Asia, at the end of July, it was estimated that across Afghanistan, drought was affecting the health and nutrition situation of an estimated 4.2 million people, which was ranked as a severe humanitarian crisis resulting from the combination of insecurity and poor water supply. The Assessment Capacities Project (ACAPS), a major source of information on disasters, estimated that 3,300,000 people were in acute need of assistance with 1,900,000 in acute need of food security assistance.

In South America, the Uruguayan Ministry of Livestock, agriculture and fisheries declared an emergency at the end of June, especially in the Department of Tacuarembó. Altogether 14 Departments are affected by drought in the north of the country.

Floods

Floods in the Horn of Africa and surrounding regions started in April in Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya, Ethiopia and especially Somalia. By mid-May, about a quarter million of people had been displaced but about 700,000 were affected. Settlements of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) were most badly affected through deteriorating sanitary situations.

During mid-July, damaging rainfall was also reported from parts of Niger and neighbouring Nigeria. About 600 houses were damaged and about 50 people died. Close to 200000 people were affected.

In Asia, according to ACAPS, heavy rainfall was recorded in India (Tripura) and in north-eastern Bangladesh since 12 June; river water levels rose rapidly because of upstream flooding in India. The districts of Moulvibazar and Sylhet suffered most, where crops and infrastructure were destroyed. At least 700,000 people have been affected, and over 12,000 had to move to temporary shelters in Moulvibazar. In various areas of neighbouring Myanmar, more than 120,000 people had been displaced due to flooding by late July. In Mongolia, floods occurred in the western part of the country from mid-July.

Floods were also reported for Sri Lanka  around 20 May and in Tajikistan during the first days of June, but widest international coverage was received by the release of 5 billion cubic meters of water from a dam under construction by an international consortium in Champasak province in Laos. Most damage, however occurred downstream in Attapeu province. The collapse was contemporary with excess precipitation brought about by tropical storm Son-Tinh in the last days of July, although the causality links are not very clear. Hundreds of houses were damaged. More than thousand people are missing and 34 are confirmed dead. A United Nations report on the disaster mentions that about 12000 people in 357 villages are affected.

[Legend of Figure A] A Cambodian couple and their dog: News of Laos Dam Failure Didn’t Reach Them, but the Water Did. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/01/world/asia/laos-cambodia-dam-flooding.html

According to the Emergency Operations Centre of ASEAN, the flash-flood [that] occurred in Attapue Province [was] caused by water discharge from Xepien-Xenamnoyu Dam, due to heavy rainfall  along Xe Pian River (these events took place while the monsoon season is ongoing.) Interestingly, the disaster provides an illustration of the failure of taking into account clear warning signals that became visible several days before the dam collapsed, but also the lack of warnings issued to the population due to poor cell-phone coverage in a mostly forested area (figure X1).

Cyclones

The situation of cyclones was relatively calm during the reporting period. It is in order to mention a tropical storm and a cyclone that developed in the north-western Indian Ocean, making landfall in the Horn of Africa (Somalia) and in the Arabian peninsula in areas where their occurrence is rare.

Somalia is one of the countries that has been badly affected by political unrest and displaced persons for many years now.   Between 16 and 20 May, the situation was made worse  by the occurrence of a Tropical storm, Sagar, which affected N. Somalia and Djibouti. According to Wikipedia, Sagar caused deadly flash flooding that washed away roads (in particular two main roads connecting Gedo with Mogadishu and Kismayo), bridges, homes, and thousands of farm animals and crops (50,000 Ha inundated just before harvesting). Wells were contaminated by floodwater. This has led to a surge in water and vector borne diseases. The timing of flood recession crops [XXXX see note below for translators]  is delayed due to high water levels and, as a result, replanting declined.

[Legend of Figure B] Tracks of tropical storm Sagar (16-20 May, western track) and cyclone Mekunu (21-27 May, eastern track) with the maximum windpeed. The Saffir-Simpson scale applies only to tropical cyclones. Figure based on Wikipedia.

Sagar was followed a week later by cyclone Mekunu which struck Socotra Island and the southern coast of Yemen, confirming the increasing frequency of cyclones in the north-western Indian Ocean. Stored food and fishing vessels were damaged or lost. Cyclonic Storm Sagar, which also hit Yemen, Djibouti and Ethiopia was the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make landfall in Somalia in recorded history.

About 20 storms of various strengths developed in the Pacific Ocean during the reporting period. While many contributed rain to continental and maritime south-east Asia and to Eastern Asia, little damage is reported but for Son-Tinh (known as “Henry” in the Philippines). Between 15 and 24 July, this relatively weak tropical cyclone skimmed past the northern coast of Luzon, making landfall in Cagayan, then crossed Hainan, created a lot of havoc in Vietnam, remained over land again in Hainan and eventually died over the Himalayan foothills in China. In Vietnam the storm caused severe floods and mudslides leading to the death of about 30 people. Over 82,000 hectares (200,000 acres) of agricultural land was inundated and at least 17,000 farm animals were swept away by the floods. More than 100 houses have been destroyed and 4,000 have been flooded in the north and centre of the country. The Mekong River Commission has reported significant increase of water levels in the whole Mekong River area due to tropical storm Son-Tinh.

References and sources

http://www.fao.org/3/I9666EN/i9666en.pdf

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/pdf/publications/preliminary-report/mekunu.pdf

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/africa/Cape-Verde-in-grip-of-severe-drought/4552902-4612700-th3v8xz/index.html

https://ahacentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/AHA-Situation_Update_no_2_Effect-of-TS-11-Son-Tinh-to-Lao-PDR_rev.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Laos_dam_collapse

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Sagar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Son-Tinh_(2018)

https://reliefweb.int/report/guatemala/sequ-afecta-500-mil-personas-y-no-hay-fondos-para-atenderlas

https://reliefweb.int/report/mauritania/west-africa-food-crisis-threatens-6-million-people

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/MDRTJ027do.pdf

https://www.acaps.org

https://www.acaps.org/country/afghanistan

https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/20180726_acaps_briefing_note_laos_floods_dam_collapse_0.pdf

https://www.acaps.org/sites/acaps/files/products/files/acaps_humanitarian_overview_analysis_of_key_crises_into_2018.pdf

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-laos-accident-dam/dozens-feared-dead-rescuers-search-for-missing-after-laos-dam-collapse-idUSKBN1KF02D

XXXX Flood recession crops are crops that are planted along the banks of seasonal rivers or lakes. For instance, the Senegal river flow peaks in October: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senegal_River. After October, as the water level decreases, farmers plant along the river and planting continues as the level continues to decrease, sometimes over several months. If there are no unexpected floods, this is very safe agriculture, with high yields.