El Nino conditions have been neutral across the Pacific Ocean during the second quarter of 2018. Figure 1. illustrates the behavior of the standard Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) from July 2017 to July 2018. Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. 

During the current season, SOI decreased slightly from +4.5 in April to +2.1 in May, further to -5.5 in June, however, it increased to +1.6 in July again. The overall fluctuation of SOI between +7.0 and -7.0 indicates a neutral state of El Niño. 

Figure 1. Monthly SOI-BOM time series from July 2017 to July 2018

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml

The sea surface temperature anomalies in July 2018 for NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 regions are +0.5°C, +0.4°C, and +0.4°C in sequence, slightly warmer than 1961-1990 average according to BOM (see Figure 2-3). Both BOM and NOAA think that the slight warmer condition is within the thresholds of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their ENSO’s outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. CropWatch will keep on monitoring the situation.

Figure 2. Map of NINO Region

Source:https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/Fig3_ENSOindices_SST_large.png

Figure 3. July 2018 sea surface temperature departure from the 1961-1990average

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/wrap-up/archive/20180814.ssta_pacific_monthly.png