In general, cropcondition as assessed by NDVI is below average in the current monitoringperiod. This reporting period covered the seeding and flowering stages ofsummer crops, including barley, maize, oats, spring wheat, and soybeans. Interms of the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, RAIN was 30% below average;TEMP was close to average (+0.7° C), and RADPAR was 4% above average.

In the previous monitoringperiod (up to and including April), abundant rainfall (+38%) was available inCanada according to the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators. Unfortunately, overthe recent period most regions were affected by drought. This in particular wasthe case in Alberta and Saskatchewan, where rainfall sharply decreased (-49%)and temperature increased by 1.3⁰C and 1.0⁰C, respectively. The dry and warmweather caused the biomass production potential (BIOMSS) in both provinces todrop 45% below the five-year average. According to media reports, Alberta washit by the worst drought in 50 years, which could eventually cause a 20-30%drop in grain production. CropWatch forecasted a 11.3% drop in wheat output forAlberta. In Saskatchewan, the bad crop situation is confirmed by low maximumVCI values, and the decrease in output is estimated to be 7.3%. In otherprovinces, below average rainfall occurred in Manitoba (-27%), Ontario (-11%),and Quebec (-13%). NDVI profiles also indicated gradually worsening cropcondition, with NDVI close to average in Ontario, Quebec, and some scatteredregions of Alberta and Saskatchewan and below average elsewhere.

Due to the droughtcondition, the overall drop in BIOMSS for Canada was 23% over the reportingperiod. Some crops were destroyed as a result of the drought, which in turn resultedin a decrease in the fraction of cropped arable land of 6 percentage points. Ifdry weather conditions continue into the next monitoring period, below averagegrain production can be expected. Table B.3 in Annex B presents the estimatedproduction outputs for the country in 2015.

Figure3.9. Canada crop condition, April-July 2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                  (b) Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA           (d)NDVI profiles