The Ethiopian Belg is a generally unreliable season during which short-cycled cereals are grown for which harvesting takes place early, usually before August. Crops of the “main”Meher season are planted between May and August and subsequently harvested in August or even significantly later in the season (this can be as late as December.)The current reporting period, which largely coincides with the planting of Meher and harvest of Belg crops suffered below average rainfall (-25%),slightly above average temperature (+0.4°C), and a more significant increase in sunshine. The resulting biomass production potential (BIOMSS, -22%) essentially regards Belg crops. National crop development profiles show below average cropcondition until the end of May, which is an indicator for below average Belg crops due to drought. From June on forward, however, coinciding with Meher planting, the situation turned close to average. Considering the slight reduction in CALF (-2%) and fair VCIx values (0.88), it is likely that theMeher season was delayed due to insufficient soil moisture, but that the current situation, with NDVI close to the recent five-year maximum, showsglobally favorable conditions for the Meher season. It is also stressed that there is good agreement between the average NDVI and the profile clusters,which converge at 0 (i.e., average) at the end of July. Altogether, after areduced Belg output, current prospects are good for the ongoing Meher,especially in the southern half of the country.

Figure3.12. Ethiopia crop condition, April-July2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                          (b)Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                             (d)NDVI profiles