Chapter 4 presents a detailed analysis for China, focusingon the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south.After a brief overview of the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions over themonitoring period (section 4.1), a new bulletin section (4.2) describes thesituation with pests and diseases that are affecting agricultural crops inChina. Section 4.3 then presents an outlook for 2015 production of maize, rice,wheat, and soybean, while section 4.4 presents analyses by region. Additionalinformation on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chineseprovinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

During the monitoring period, winter wheatwas harvested and summer crops (maize and soybean) were planted in the north ofChina. Figures 4.1 to 4.5 illustrate China's spatial distribution of rainfall(figure 4.1) and temperature profiles (figure 4.2), and maps of cropped anduncropped arable land (figure 4.3), maximum VCI (figure 4.4.), and VHI minimum(figure 4.5). Table 4.1 presents an overview of CropWatch indicators for themonitoring period.

Table 4.1. CropWatchagroclimatic and agronomic indicators for China, April-July 2015, departurefrom 5YA and 14YA

Note:Departures are expressed in relative terms (percentage) for all variables,except for temperature, for which absolute departure in degrees Celsius isgiven. Zero means no change from the average value; relative departures arecalculated as (C-R)/R*100, with C=current value and R=reference value, which isthe five (5YA) or fourteen-year average (14YA) for the same period(April-July).

Rainfall (RAIN) increased by 11%, whiletemperature (TEMP) and radiation (RADPAR) decreased by 0.2°C and 2%, respectively, when compared with average. Theprevailing agroclimatic conditions lead to average biomass. In more than 70% ofthe country, mostly in central and northern China, rainfall in the past seven months was average up to July, while it was above average in the west of Guangxi and east of Guizhou provinces. Temperature fluctuatedwidely.

In Huanghuaihai, Loess region, and NortheastChina, below average RAIN and TEMP resulted in lower BIOMSS. In the LowerYangtze region, abundant rainfall lead to a potential BIOMSS increase of 13%over the recent five-year average. High VCIx values mostly occur in SouthwestChina and in the Northeast. Low VCIx values are mainly located in NorthwestChina and Huanghuaihai regions, in particular the south of Jiangsu and north ofShanxi and Shaanxi provinces. Crop condition in the Southwest China is above average(VCIx is 0.93), as temperature and PAR are higher than average and rainfall isjust slightly below.

Duringthe monitoring period, the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) dropped belowthe recent five-year average in all regions except Huanghuaihai whereCALF increased by 1 percentage point. In Inner Mongolia, Loess Region, and Lower Yangtze, the dropin CALF may be the result of the low temperature, while in Northeast andSouthern China below average rainfall is the most likely factor. The results for minimum VHI indicatethat most areas did not experience water stress. Some major productionzones, however, suffered from drought,including southern Liaoning,western Shandong, and the east of Jiangsu province (figure 4.5).