CropWatch indicators point to favorable conditions for winter crops at the grain filling stage. As a result, the total production of winter crops in China is revised to 125.7 million tons, an increase of 2.16million tons (or 1.7%) compared to 2014 and 0.3 percentage points (equivalent to 317 thousand tons) up from the previous estimates. Table 4.5 presents an overview of the estimated production levels by province. Only Anhui, Hubei, and Gansu show decreased production compared to the previous year.

Table 4.5. China, 2015 winter crop production(thousand tons) and percentage difference with 2014, by province

Note: *Nationaltotal production does not include Taiwan province.

Table 4.6 lists the estimated 2015 production for maize,rice, wheat, and soybean in China; table 4.7 provides additional detail about different rice crop types. The production of maize is at the same level as during 2014 (an increase just under +0.5%), but rice and wheat are estimated torespectively increase their production by 1% and 2% compared with the previousseason. Soybean decreases 3%—in line with  its downward trend—because of a drop in planting area; soybean productionwill reach 12.69 million tons.  For rice,single rice production increases by 2%, while the production of early rice andlate rice decrease by 1% and 2%, respectively.

Chongqing, Gansu, Hebei, Henan, and Xinjiang all have anestimated increase in maize production above 3%. On the contrary, a largedecrease in the production of this crop is observed in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia,Shaanxi, and Shanxi. The factors behind the decrease vary from province toprovince and include drought and pests in Inner Mongolia. Yield in Shaanxiprovince drops mainly due to the severe drought. Soybean in Heilongjiangprovince—the top soybean producing province in China (representing nearly onethird of the national soybean production)—decreases by 4% due to the reducedplanted area. Inner Mongolia and Shanxi show the largest drop in soybeanproduction, as both area and yield are low.

The aggregated rice production shows a decrease inGuangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Zhejiang, while all other provinces showan estimated increase by 1% to 3%. Generally, areas that practice doublecropping show a decreasing trend while the area for single rice plantingincreased in recent years.

Table 4.6. China, 2015 maize, rice, wheat and soybeanproduction and percentage difference with 2014, by province

Note: * Nationaltotal production does not include Taiwan province.

Table 4.7. China, 2015 single rice, early rice, and late riceproduction and percentage difference with 2014, by province

Note: * Nationaltotal production does not include Taiwan province.

CropWatch puts the total annual output (including cereals,legumes, and tubers) at 567.7 million tons, 0.7% up from 2014 (3.9 million tonsincrease). The total summer production is forecast at 406.9 million tons, 0.5%increase or 2 million tons increase from last drought year, slightly above 2013summer crop production. Early rice production is at 35.1 million tons, 1%decrease from the previous year.

Since late rice is still at early growing stage, and maizeand single rice are at grain filling stage, the production for each crop typeas well as total summer crops production and annual outputs will be revisedusing new updated remote sensing data in the next bulletin.