Since the planting of Belgcrops (in February) until now, overall conditions in the country weredefinitely less favorable than during the rather good previous season, possiblyas a result of the “hesitant” El Niño conditions that have been prevailing forabout a year now. Overall, the country suffered a rainfall deficit close to 25%in the early months of 2015, with a slight drop in sunshine (RADPAR, -1%) andresulting in a drop of biomass production potential of 22%. The period covered bythis bulletin almost exactly corresponds to the Belg season, which is thus veryunlikely to have performed normally, as also confirmed by a 4% drop in CALF anda VCIx that stayed below 0.5 in much of the country. According to the NDVIprofiles for the period from February to April, above-average conditions prevailedin about 10% in the country; 60% of cropped areas can be described ascomparable to the average of the previous five years, while about 25% show poorand deteriorating conditions, mostly in north and east Amhara and the northeastern fringe of Oromya. Although the Belg season plays a minor role comparedto the main Meherseason (by definition, the crops harvested after August) interms of cultivated area and production, a poor Belg season indicates that soilmoisture conditions are not as good as during an average year even for MEHERcrops. In addition, a poor Belg season means that grasslands and animalssuffer, and that food prices increase. Even if the harvest of Meher crops takesplace as late as December for some of the Meher crops, overall prospects arecurrently unfavorable in Ethiopia and deserve close monitoring.

Figure3.12. Ethiopia crop condition, January-April2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                 (b) Maxmum VCI

c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                      (d) NDVI profile