In general, CropWatch indicators concur to describe the condition ofwinter wheat as above average in the United States over the monitoring period,which covers the growing season of winter crops and planting season of summercrops. Overall, the rainfall indicator (RAIN) shows a 24% departure aboveaverage, with average temperature (TEMP, -0.4°C) and a 4% decrease in radiation(RADPAR). Thanks to the favorable weather, the main winter crops zone of thesouthern plains received abundant rainfall, including Texas (+35%), Oklahoma(+32%), Kansas (+16%), and in Nebraska (+48%). TEMP was close to below averagein Texas (-0.8), Oklahoma (-0.7), Kansas (+0.2), and Nebraska (+1.0). RADPARwas below or close to average in Texas (-11%), Oklahoma (-6%), Kansas (+1%),and Nebraska (0%). As a result, the BIOMSS indicator shows a significantpositive departure in Texas (+52%), Oklahoma (+35%), Kansas (+18%) and Nebraska(+41%). As mentioned in the description of the North American zone (section2.3), the Corn Belt received abundant rainfall, which will benefit summer crops.However, at the same time, serious drought conditions occurred on the U.S. WestCoast, including California (-48%) and Oregon (-35%).

Overall, the biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) shows a 10%positive departure compared to the recent five-year average; CALF increased by1%; and VCIx was 0.74. The NDVI development profile showed average cropcondition, but better than the condition for the same period last year. In thesouthern plains, winter crops showed good performance: in Texas; the maximumVCI (VCIx) was above 0.8 and even above 1 in some areas, which is consistentwith BIOMSS. California is the largest vegetable and fruits producing state inthe United States. As a result of advanced irrigation technologies, crops inthis state showed a good condition with VCIx above 0.8, in spite of the droughtbut at the cost of increased groundwater consumption. Groundwater depletion inthis region is a serious long-term risk.

According to the NDVI profiles and patterns, crop condition was closeto average from October 2014 to late February and March 2015. In March, theNDVI value dropped sharply due to drought in most western and northern states.This was followed by timely rainfall in northern states and the southernplains, so that crop condition rapidly recovered and locally exceeds the average.If the rainy weather condition continues, the combination of the increase incropped arable land areas and good crop condition will lead to above averagewinter wheat production. Table B.3 in Annex B presents the 2015 wheatproduction outlook for the country.

Figure3.31. United States crop condition, January-April2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                 (b)Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                           (d)NDVI profiles