This analysis covers thegrowing stage of winter cereals and the sowing stage of coarse grains,including maize, in Uzbekistan from January to April in 2015. The cropcondition was generally favorable. The country as a whole showed a significantincrease of rainfall (RAIN, +11%) but average temperature (TEMP). Radiation(RADPAR, -5%) was low, but the combined effect of RAIN and TEMP is an increasein BIOMSS of the order of 18% over the previous five-year average. Thisassessment is confirmed by the national NDVI development graph, which showsthat crop condition was above last the five-year average and even exceeded thelast five-year maximum in January and April. NDVI cluster graphs and profilesshow a favorable picture in most parts of the country from February to March,while in the west (the cotton growing area of Karakalpakstan) and south (Kagan,Qarshi, and Surkhondaryo), crop condition showed a drop from early February. Inlate March, a sudden drop in NDVI also occurred in parts of the country’scentral and east areas (Samarkand, Jizzakh, Tashkent, Namangan, and Andijon).Current condition, however, is either average or above average. Altogether,prospects are favorable in Uzbekistan’s food producing areas.

Figure3.32. Uzbekistan crop condition, January-April2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI              (b)Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                              (d)NDVI profiles