Chapter 4 presents a detailed analysis for China, focusingon the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south.After a brief overview of the 2014-2015 winter crops growing season (section4.1) and the production outlook for 2015 (4.2), detailed analyses includingmaps and profiles are provided for NDVI, VCIx, and BIOMSS in the regions (4.3).Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturallyimportant Chinese provinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators were generally closeto average in China over the monitoring period; RAIN was 5% above average,while RADPAR was -2%. Table 4.1 provides an overview of the agroclimatic andagronomic indicators for selected provinces. Although temperature fluctuatedseverely, TEMP was above average in all regions and provinces during the period,which indicates that the country experienced a warm season (TEMP, +1.2°C), especiallyin Inner Mongolia (+1.4°C),Northeast China (1.6°C), and Southwest China (1.3°C). In about ten provinces,the departure in temperature exceeded 1°C, including Anhui and Sichuan province.Rainfall was below average in the Lower Yangtze (RAIN, -16%) and NortheastChina (-2%), but particularly so in the southern islands of Hainan (-45%) andTaiwan (-42%). Rainfall was more than 80% above average in Inner Mongolia,Gansu, Shaanxi, and Zhejiang provinces. PAR (RADPAR) was below the average,except for Inner Mongolia (0%) and Southern China (+3%); it was about average inalmost all the provinces except Hunan and Guizhou, where the departure exceeded8%. High temperature and abundant rainfall resulted in BIOMSS values larger than50% above the average in the Loess region and Southwest China.

Table 4.1. CropWatch agroclimaticand agronomic indicators for China, January-April 2015, departure from 5YA and14YA

Figures 4.1 to 4.5 illustrate China's spatial distribution of rainfall (figure 4.1) and temperature profiles (figure 4.2), and maps of cropped and uncropped arable land (figure 4.3), maximum VCI (figure 4.4.), and VHI minimum (figure 4.5). Both high and low maximum VCI values are scattered in almost all provinces, with high values mainly located in the east of Guizhou,north Jiangsu, and south Shandong, and low values (below 0.5) in the north of Hunan and south of Hubei, indicating unfavorable crop condition in these areas.Low rainfall in the Lower Yangtze region resulted in low biomass, while above average temperature in the other six regions may lead to high biomass: the potential biomass was 60% above average in Inner Mongolia and Southwest China. Normalrainfall in the Northeast region resulted in average soil moisture, which is conducive to the sowing and emergence of spring wheat, soybean, and maize. During the growing season of winter wheat, suitable temperature and adequate rainfall inthe major production provinces may result in a higher production than the previous year.

Overall, the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 3% abovet he five-year average for China. Because of relatively low temperatures, most of the uncropped land is found in the Northeast and Northwest China regions, aswell as in Inner Mongolia. The sowing of spring crops has been under way since lateApril. The CALF of the Loess region and Lower Yangtze region was above average(increases of 2% and 1%, respectively), while it was below average in Southern China and Southwest China (-1% and -2%, respectively), indicating a decrease inthe cropped area for this period. Minimum VHI indicates that southern Anhui,the northeast of Hunan, and central Shanxi province all experienced mild waterstress, while in other regions water was adequate for crop growth or planting,especially in the east of Shandong and almost the entire Henan province.

Figure 4.1. China spatial distribution ofrainfall profiles, January-April 2015