Favorable conditions during the wintering period in China have provided good prospects for winter crops: the total production in China is expected to reach 125.4 million tons, an increase of 1.85 million tons or 1.5%compared to 2014 (table 4.2). Only three of the eleven major winter crops producing provinces—Anhui, Hubei, and Gansu—show decreased production compared to the previous year. A combination of decreases in both yield and planted area resulted in lower production in Anhui and Hubei. The most significant decrease in planted area (-6.3%) was observed in Gansu, but this was compensated by a 5.3%increase in yield. Shandong and Henan—the top two winter crops producing provinces—benefited from favorable agro-climatic conditions, with 4.3% and 1.1%increases in production respectively. Increased production was also observed in Shanxi, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Shaanxi.

Table 4.2. China, 2015winter crops production (thousand tons) and percentage difference with 2014,

In China, winter wheat is an important part of the wintercrop output, and over the past ten years winter wheat has accounted for 91% of thatoutput. For 2015, CropWatch puts the Chinese winter wheat production forecast at113.5 million tons, 1.1% above the previous year’s production (table 4.3). Bothyield and planted area contributed to the increased production. Only threeprovinces suffered from reduced yield due to abnormal weather conditions. Thisincluded Hubei, which suffered from continuous rainy weather that interfered withyield formation and ripening. In northern Jiangsu and Anhui, rainfall followedby windy weather resulted in wheat lodging and decreased yield. The planted areaof winter wheat area was stable (the variation was less than 1%) compared to2014, except in Jiangsu, Shandong, and Gansu provinces. Increased wheatplanting in the first two provinces was the result of a shift away fromrapeseed in Jiangsu and from cotton in Shandong.

Up to early May, most winter wheat was heading towards thegrain-filling stage. If the agroclimatic conditions stay favorable untilharvest, the production of winter crops in China will be above the 2014 record.

Table 4.3. China, 2015 winter wheatarea, yield, and production and percentage difference with 2014, by province