In Southwest China, the monitoring period covers the planting of maize and single rice[1]and the late stages of winter wheat. The ongoing growing season can generally be described as having a somewhat above average condition. Crop condition was average from January to March, after which it improved to above average. The agroclimatic indicators (RAIN, +59%; TEMP, +1.3°C; and RADPAR, -5% compared to average) show abundant rainfall, a marked positive temperature anomaly, and a significant loss of sunshine. Potential accumulated biomass (BIOMSS) reaches+63% compared with the recent five-year average. The CALF was relatively stable, decreasing 2% compared to the average of the last five seasons. Marked spatial differences, however, occur within the region, with east Sichuan,Chongqing (where rainfall was 14% below average), most of Guizhou, and part of northwest Guangxi showing below average conditions at the end of March; these areas will require close monitoring. Altogether, condition of crops is currently at least average (VCIx of 0.88). Combined with likely pockets of poor crops and decreased CALF, average production is likely.

Figure4.11. Crop condition Southwest China region, January-April 2015

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(b)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (b) (c)NDVI profiles

(d)Maximum VCI                                                     (e)Biomass