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OverviewMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: 超级管理员 | Edit: xingqiang

Building on the global patterns presented in previous chapters, this chapter assesses the situation of crops in 30 key countries that represent the global major producers and exporters or otherwise are of global or CropWatch relevance. For each country, maps present an NDVI-based crop condition development graph, maximum VCI, and spatial NDVI patterns with associated NDVI profiles. Additional detail on the agroclimatic and BIOMSS indicators, in particular for some of the larger countries, is included in Annex A, tables A.2-A.11. Annex B includes 2014 production estimates for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States.

3.1 Overview

Figures 3.1-3.4 illustrate the global distribution of CropWatch indicators for rainfall, temperature, radiation, and biomass—respectively the RAIN, TEMP, RADPAR, and BIOMSS indicators, showing their increase or decrease for this monitoring period compared to last year’s July-October period.Details by country are presented in table 3.1.

Two countries—Iraq and New Zealand—underwent extreme conditions during the reporting period; Iraq experienced rainfall at a level of178% of average and a TEMP increase of +2.6°C (RAIN +178%, TEMP +2.6°C), while New Zealand experienced a decrease in both (-85%, -0.6°C). Negative effects on crops are unlikely in Iraq, but in New Zealand the period coincides with the end of the winter crop season and negative impacts are likely on wheat and barley. Less extreme conditions are reported for French Guyana (-31%, -1.8°C)and Portugal (-33%, -0.7°C, with a drop in RADPAR of 5%), where both rain fall and temperature were below average. In Spain, temperature was low as well(-1.7°C), but rainfall was closer to average than in neighboring Portugal.

The following countries all experienced varying degrees of excess rainfall: Macedonia (+55%, -0.4°C, -5% RADPAR), Mauritania (+58%,+1.7°C), Lebanon (+60%,-1.6°C, +11% RADPAR), neighboring Syria (+105%, +2.1°C),and Uzbekistan with a record +175% of rainfall and -0.2°C temperature departure. For Uzbekistan, CropWatch indices also list a biomass potential (BIOMSS)increase of 175%. For all countries, the extra rainfall constitutes a positive factor, either for the end of the summer season (for example in Mauritania), or to replenish soil moisture before the winter crop season in Europe and Asia.

Countries with below average precipitation but other wise average conditions are mostly located in southern Africa and include Botswana (RAIN-56%), Swaziland (-51%), and South Africa (-39%). The reduced rainfall may point at a late onset of the main growing season (October-March/May). It is compatible with El Niño patterns and may negatively affect the growing season through low initial soil moisture storage. Other countries that deserve mentioning are Suriname (RAIN -41%) and, among the major producers, Ukraine with a drop in rainfall of -29%.

Figure 3.1. Global map of rainfall(RAIN) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 13YA (percentage), July-October2014

Figure 3.2. Global map oftemperature (TEMP) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 13YA (degrees),July-October 2014

Figure 3.3. Global map of PAR (RADPAR)by country and sub-national areas, departure from 13YA (percentage), July-October2014

Figure 3.4. Global map of biomass (BIOMSS)by country and sub-national areas, departure from 13YA (percentage), July-October2014

Table 3.1. CropWatch agroclimatic andagronomic indicators for July-October 2014, departure from 5YA and 13YA

Country

Agroclimatic indicators

Agronomic indicators

Departure from 13YA (2001-13)

Departure from 5YA (2009-13)

Current

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RAIN (%)

TEMP (°C)

RADPAR (%)

BIOMSS (%)

CALF (%)

Cropping Intensity
(% points)

Maximum VCI

Argentina

12

1.9

-4

14

10

2

0.72

Australia

-37

0.9

1

-31

12

2

0.79

Bangladesh

23

1.1

2

4

-1

-5

0.86

Brazil

4

1.7

1

1

12

5

0.71

Cambodia

26

1.3

4

8

2

-18

0.87

Canada

6

1.0

-2

6

2

-2

0.91

China

14

0.7

-1

12

0

-6

0.86

Egypt

-17

0.0

-1

0

5

0

0.82

Ethiopia

-2

0.7

0

2

2

0

0.87

France

-3

1.1

-5

6

0

-4

0.85

Germany

18

1.1

-2

17

0

-8

0.88

India

18

1.2

0

-3

-1

0

0.84

Indonesia

-20

0.8

4

-21

0

-12

0.87

Iran

37

1.0

-1

30

0

-3

0.65

Kazakhstan

40

-0.7

-2

33

2

0

0.67

Mexico

-1

0.8

1

8

5

5

0.86

Myanmar

-8

1.2

5

-5

0

-15

0.90

Nigeria

8

0.7

0

6

0

-4

0.81

Pakistan

1

1.3

-1

-15

-2

-1

0.66

Philippines

5

0.6

0

-3

0

-14

0.89

Poland

10

1.0

4

10

0

5

0.80

Romania

-9

0.4

0

13

1

5

0.78

Russia

-17

-0.8

2

-10

1

-1

0.78

S. Africa

-39

0.9

2

-24

-18

6

0.44

Thailand

7

0.9

5

1

0

-16

0.93

Turkey

35

1.1

-3

19

2

-3

0.78

U.K.

4

0.9

3

-6

0

-13

0.81

Ukraine

-29

0.1

7

-22

0

-2

0.75

U.S.A.

16

0.4

-2

14

3

-1

0.83

Uzbekistan

175

-0.2

-1

175

-2

0

0.67

Vietnam

1

1.1

1

2

0

-15

0.89

Large excess of water affected Malawi (+159%) and a group of countries in Central Asia (Uzbekistan was already mentioned; Kyrgyzstan, +181%;and Tajikistan, +311%), where it will benefit winter crops and especially range lands.

The South-American heat wave was already mentioned in chapter 1 in relation to Brazil and Argentina. This heatwave also affected other countries in the region, such as Uruguay (+2.3°C), Paraguay (+2.6°C) and,further north, Guatemala (+2.6°C) and Belize (+3.9°), the record among all countries monitored by CropWatch. The heat wave was often accompanied by a lot of sunshine, for instance in Colombia (+6% RADPAR) and Ecuador (RADPAR +8%).

Larger than average sunshine is also mentioned for central Africa (the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Gabon, Sudan, South Sudan,and the Central African Republic), with values between 6 and 11% excess RADPAR.This can only benefit crop production and food security in countries where water is rarely limiting but cloud cover limits available sunshine. A group of countries in Europe were exposed to record low sunshine between -7% and -10% RADPAR, including Slovenia, Croatia, Switzerland, Austria, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, among others. With the low sunshine values often correlated with high rainfall, low RADPAR is not necessarily negative at this time of the year.However, water logging has certainly interfered with late harvest operations as well as with the land preparation for the coming winter season.