Crop condition in Brazil was generally average from July to October. Currently, the harvest of wheat and second maize (mostly in central and southern Brazil) is almost completed. The planting of rice, soybean, and first maize are ongoing. FromJuly to October 2014, above average TEMP dominated in Brazil and altogether average (13YA) precipitation was observed at national level, even if conditions sometimes varied from place to place. Southern Brazil, including Rio Grande DoSul, Paraná and Mato Grosso Do Sul experienced 20% more rainfall than average while central Brazil (Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais) suffered from a water deficit. Water was the key limiting factor for crops over the July to Octoberperiod as confirmed by the maximum VCI map. Crop condition in central Brazilincluding Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais is either at or below average due to shortage of rainfall. The top two wheat producing states (Rio Grande DoSul and Paraná) show above average vegetation condition and BIOMSS (see alsofigure 2.3(f)). However, the persistent high temperature (2°C degree above average) shortens the grain filling stage and hampers yield accumulation. The harvest of wheat was well advanced due to high temperature, which can be confirmed by the rapid decrease of the NDVI profile in the crop condition development graph. Overall, wheat production has been revised downwards to 6.6million tons, 6% down from the CropWatch August forecast, but still 16% above last year’s production due to expanded area supported by high domestic and regional prices. Wheat yield is revised from average to 6% below last year’s harvest (see also table B.3 in Annex B).

Figure3.8. Brazil crop condition, July-October 2014

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (b) Maximum VCI