In spite of the some what erratic behavior of average NDVI between May and July (due to a low NDVI peak in the south around I mo and Oyo in July and a high peak at the end of August in and around Kogi State), VCIx values in Nigeria are usually above 0.5, with an average VCIx of 0.81. VCIx values increase to above 1 in the north-east (Yobeand Borno states) and drop below 0.5 only in very limited patches. Altogether,conditions in more than 72% of the country are average, resulting also from average agroclimatic conditions (RAIN +8%, TEMP +0.7°C, RADPAR 0%, and BIOMSS+6%). While the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) remained the same (0%), cropping intensity dropped by 4%, which may be linked to a somewhat late onset of the season in the north. The condition of the first maize crop and the condition of the crops still to be harvested (for example the second maize crop in the south) do not raise reasons for concern.

Figure3.22. Nigeria crop condition, July-October2014

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (b)Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (d)NDVI profiles