Ukraine presented unfavorable crop condition during this monitoring period (VCIx=0.75) and phenology was normal. The winter wheat’s harvest was completed before August and seeding began in September. The maize harvest started in August. The climate conditions are characterized by poor rainfall from July to October (down 29% compared with the last thirteen years), while TEMP and RADPAR were close to average. The resulting potential biomass drop is 22%.

As shown in the crop condition development graph, the July-October NDVI was lower than during the last five years. The decrease mainly affects southern and eastern Ukraine. Inmost parts of western Ukraine, the NDVI is average compared to the previous five years. As most of the winter wheat has been harvested before August, the yield of wheat wouldn’t be affected. The maize yield is expected to drop in eastern Ukraine (including Donetsk and part of Dnipropetrovsk).

Figure3.30. Ukraine crop condition,July-October 2014

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   b)Maximum VCI

c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA     (d)NDVI profiles