As South American soybeans and maize enter their critical harvest period, global agricultural markets are closely monitoring South American production data. As a major global food exporting region, South America's harvest conditions directly impact international market supply patterns and price trends. Particularly against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change and U.S.-China trade tensions, timely monitoring of South American crop harvest conditions has become especially important.

Using satellite remote sensing data through mid-April 2025, monitoring shows that South American soybean production maintained overall growth in the 2024-2025 season. Brazil and Argentina's combined soybean production reached 211.62 million tons, a 9.2% year-on-year increase. Brazil's soybean production reached 169.11 million tons, up 10.8% year-on-year, while Argentina's production was 42.41 million tons, up 3.2%. The combined production from both countries decreased by 2.37 million tons compared to February forecasts, primarily due to heavy rainfall in Argentina during early and late March, which limited photosynthesis during the soybean grain-filling period.

The soybean planting area in both countries expanded to 61,901 thousand hectares, a 3.5% year-on-year increase, with Brazil showing a slight increase while Argentina's planting area grew significantly by 10.2% due to policy adjustments and market factors. Soybean yields showed significant differences between Brazil and Argentina: Brazil benefited from favorable rain and temperature conditions during key growth periods, though late-season hot and dry weather had some impact on yields. Brazil's yields decreased slightly from February forecasts but remained 9.9% higher than the 2023-2024 season average. Argentina, however, experienced high temperatures and low rainfall in January, causing soil moisture deterioration. Heavy rainfall in early and late March effectively alleviated the earlier drought conditions and accelerated soybean growth, but severely hindered photosynthesis, resulting in a 6.4% year-on-year yield decrease.

Meanwhile, the maize production outlook is less optimistic, with Brazil and Argentina's combined maize production forecast at 170.78 million tons, a decrease of 6.53 million tons (3.7%) year-on-year. Brazil's first maize crop area decreased by 11.1%, and despite a 7.5% yield increase, production fell by 4.4% year-on-year to 32.03 million tons. Brazil's second maize crop planting area reached 13,016 thousand hectares, nearly unchanged year-on-year, with yields reaching 6,616 kg/hectare (up 2.1%) and production reaching 86.11 million tons (up 2.2%). Brazil's total maize production reached 117.99 million tons, a slight 0.2% year-on-year increase, mainly due to higher average yields.

Argentina experienced above-average rainfall, with March precipitation effectively alleviating earlier drought conditions and providing relatively favorable soil moisture for the critical maize yield formation period in April. Crop production conditions in Argentina's main maize-producing regions improved rapidly, with average maize yields recovering to 6,524 kg/hectare, up 6.1% year-on-year and 8.4% higher than February drought-affected forecasts. Nevertheless, the significantly reduced maize planting area still resulted in an 11.4% year-on-year production decrease.

Table 1: South American (Brazil and Argentina) Soybean Production Review (April 2025)

Table 2: South American (Brazil and Argentina) Corn Production Review (April 2025)