This report, based on agricultural climate and crop condition monitoring data from January to March 2025, analyzes the crop planting status, growth stages, and conditions in countries along the equator. Key countries include Indonesia, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Kenya, Brazil, Nigeria, and parts of southern China.

In Indonesia, crops such as rice, corn, and sugarcane are in stages suitable for growth, with favorable rainfall and temperature conditions supporting crop development. The climate conditions in southern China showed significant variation during the monitoring period; in January, land preparation began, and early rice sowing started. By March, the spring crop sowing season began. Although drought in some areas affected rice sowing, the overall sowing situation was acceptable. In Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, rice harvesting has ended, and the sowing of dry season crops such as corn and sugarcane continues. Despite below-average rainfall, the sowing of dry season crops is proceeding as planned. In the Philippines, corn has completed its growing season and entered the harvest season, with favorable temperatures and light conditions supporting crop growth and harvest. A small amount of rice and other crops rely on groundwater irrigation. In Kenya, short-season corn has begun harvesting, and long-season corn is being sown. In January, Nigeria is in the dry season, providing favorable conditions for sowing crops like corn and cassava. In Brazil, favorable temperature and rainfall conditions are supporting the growth of corn and rice, while soybeans have entered the harvest season, with good crop development. Overall, Brazil's agricultural production prospects are positive. The focused monitoring results for certain regions are as follows:

1.4.1 Monitoring of Rice Field Preparation in Guangxi and Guangdong, China, and Nigeria

This report focuses on monitoring the rice field preparation progress in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guangdong Province, China. The monitoring period is up to April 22, 2025. In Guangxi, the sowing progress of early rice reached 84%, with an area of 838,000 hectares (Figure 1.9), and in Guangdong, the preparation progress was 87%, with an area of 900,000 hectares (Figure 1.10). Despite the severe drought affecting South China since early 2025, the well-developed irrigation infrastructure has effectively mitigated the impact of the drought on rice field preparation. Large reservoirs and irrigation systems in both regions ensured water supply for irrigation in key agricultural areas, allowing most rice fields to remain operational even under drought conditions, as shown in Figures 1.12(a) and (b). However, some high-elevation fields and remote irrigation-end areas (i.e., areas where irrigation facilities are difficult to cover) still face water shortages, as shown in Figure 1.12(c), temporarily halting preparation activities in those areas.

In contrast, Nigeria is in the beginning stages of the sowing season, with a field preparation progress of 34% and an area of 1.178 million hectares (Figure 1.11).

Figure 1.9: 2025 Rice Field Preparation Monitoring in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

Figure 1.10: 2025 Rice Field Preparation Monitoring in Guangdong Province

Figure 1.11: 2025 Rice Field Preparation Monitoring in Nigeria

Figure 1.12: On-site Photos from Guangxi in April 2025

1.4.2 Monitoring of Corn Planting Area in the Philippines

During the current monitoring period (January to March 2025), the main crop in the Philippines is dry season corn, which is widely distributed across the country, especially concentrated on Luzon and Mindanao Islands (as shown in Figure 1.13). As one of the Philippines' major food crops, corn’s growth directly affects national food security and farmers' income. This monitoring period covers the growing, maturation, and harvest stages of corn, as shown in Figures 1.14(a), (b), and (c). In addition to corn, the Philippines has planted a small amount of rice and other economic crops this season. These crops rely heavily on groundwater irrigation during the dry season. Farmers ensure the normal growth of crops through a well-developed irrigation network, as shown in Figures 1.14(d), (e), and (f).

Figure 1.13: Monitoring of Corn Planting Area in the Philippines

Figure 1.14: On-site Photos from the Philippines in March 2025

1.4.3 Monitoring of Rice Production in Southeast Asia's Rice Planting Areas

Currently, the equatorial region, especially Southeast Asia and some African countries, is facing significant climate challenges. Climate data from January to March 2025 indicates that insufficient rainfall and abnormally high temperatures may continue to affect rice growth, particularly in countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Thailand. These countries may still face extreme droughts, high temperatures, and water-heat imbalances in the coming months, especially during the critical transition period between the dry season and the growing season, which could put significant pressure on rice production.

CropWatch monitoring data shows that rice yield and total production in countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh are on the decline, with yield reductions of -7.6% and -13.5% respectively. In contrast, India's rice production is showing good growth, with a 2.8% increase in yield and a 6.51% increase in total production. Detailed rice production figures and changes for Southeast Asian countries can be found in Table A1. 1.

During this monitoring period, uneven water-heat conditions and climate change have caused differentiated impacts on rice yields in various countries. Significant reduction in rainfall led to water shortages during the rice growing period, impacting biomass accumulation and yield formation. The situation in Bangladesh is particularly severe, with an abnormal reduction in rainfall of 93.2%, leading to a sharp 13.5% drop in rice yield and a 12.09% decrease in total production. Rice production in Indonesia also showed a significant decline, with a 7.6% decrease in yield and a 12.22% drop in total production, likely due to abnormally high temperatures (+1.9°C). Vietnam experienced a slight decrease in rainfall (-6%), but rice yield increased by 2.1%, indicating a relatively minor impact.

The rice production outlook for 2025 in countries like Thailand and Indonesia has declined, which weakens the momentum of global supply growth. In terms of trade, the global rice trade volume in 2025 is expected to reach 59.7 million tons, close to the previous year's record levels. India's export volume is expected to reach a record 24.5 million tons, while exports from Thailand and Vietnam are expected to decrease.