Ukraine's crop production is facing multiple challenges. Despite an 8% increase in the sown area to 5,746 thousand hectares, the yield per hectare has decreased by 11%, ultimately leading to a 3.6% decline in total output. Agricultural meteorological data indicates that the current climatic conditions in Ukraine are not conducive to agricultural production. The precipitation is only 97 mm, a 42.3% reduction compared to the average level of the past 15 years. The average temperature is 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the 15-year average level, which may accelerate soil moisture evaporation and further intensify drought. Although the photosynthetically active radiation has increased by 19% compared to the reference value, this increase in radiation may not effectively promote crop growth under the conditions of drought and high temperature. The potential accumulated biomass has decreased by 6% compared to the average level, and the proportion of cultivated land under cultivation has also decreased by 3.5% compared to the average value of the past five years. The Crop Production Index (CroPI) for the region is 0.82, and the Drought Mitigation Index (ADAC) is -2.3, indicating that the region's ability to mitigate meteorological drought is limited.

The impact of conflict may be one of the factors that cannot be ignored. Conflict may lead to damage to agricultural infrastructure, such as irrigation systems and storage facilities, affecting agricultural production efficiency. At the same time, conflict may also cause labor shortages, affecting the normal conduct of farming activities. In addition, the economic instability and market uncertainty brought about by war may also make farmers more cautious in their planting decisions, reducing investment and thus affecting output. From the spatial distribution of wheat yields in Ukraine, it can be seen that there is a clear difference in yield distribution on both sides of the confrontation line. In the eastern parts of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts in eastern Ukraine, the wheat yield prospects are relatively unfavorable.

Overall, Ukraine's agricultural production is being affected by a combination of drought, high temperatures, and conflict. The conflict not only directly destroys agricultural infrastructure but also indirectly affects various aspects of agricultural production by influencing labor, markets, and economic stability. To address these challenges, Ukraine may need to restore and strengthen agricultural infrastructure while taking drought-resistant measures and optimizing irrigation management to increase yields and total output and ensure the sustainability of agricultural production.

Figure 1. Expected wheat production in Ukraine