This bulletin focuses on the eight major winter wheat production regions of the Northern Hemisphere, which are part of the 12 global regions accounting for 71% of total world wheat production. The period from April to June is critical, covering the key grain-filling to harvest stages, where weather conditions and agricultural management practices directly determine final yield and quality.

In aggregate, the total planted area across these eight regions increased by 1.3% compared to 2024. However, the average yield decreased by 0.44%, resulting in a modest 0.5% increase in total production, reaching 672.46 million metric tons. Regionally, Ukraine saw the largest increase in planted area (+8.3%), while Turkey experienced the sharpest decline (-7.3%). In terms of yield, Ukraine also faced the most significant reduction (-10.6%), whereas Russia's Central Black Earth and North Caucasus regions (+5.4%) and Turkey's Central and Western regions (+4.7%) posted notable gains.

Among the eight regions, three experienced generally favorable agro-climatic conditions, leading to positive yield trends. In Russia, temperatures were 0.7°C above average, and its southern production zones benefited from advantageous spring weather, fostering robust crop growth. The United States also showed a stable harvest outlook; despite facing moderate drought conditions (PDSI: -2.29), effective agricultural management (ADAC: -9.6) successfully secured a stable output. In Turkey, ample rainfall (225mm), warmer temperatures (+1.5°C), and effective drought mitigation (ADAC: -29) contributed to an increase in production.

In contrast, the remaining ecological zones faced varying degrees of production decline. Ukraine and Romania experienced severe drought, with rainfall deficits of 15% and 17% respectively, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values below -5.5, indicating extreme conditions. Furthermore, Ukraine's low ADAC score of -4 suggests relatively weak drought resilience. The ongoing conflict has placed additional pressure on agricultural inputs, leading to a significant drop in yield. India's northern production region faced significant heat stress, with temperatures 2.1°C above the 15-year average. Although India's well-developed irrigation systems helped mitigate agricultural drought (ADAC: -39), they could not fully offset the negative impact of the extreme heat on wheat yields during the critical grain-filling period. From March to May, the Huang-Huai-Hai region in China experienced moderate drought with obvious water stress with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values below -1.7, while drought conditions in some areas were alleviated (ADAC: -8.73), leading to a slight decline in yield per unit area.

In conclusion, for the 2025 Northern Hemisphere season, Russia's production recovery represents a major positive factor for the supply side. Conversely, the droughts in Ukraine and Romania, along with the heat stress in India, have led to regional production declines, affecting downstream importing countries. From an overall perspective, however, the global wheat production landscape remains largely stable and has slightly increased.

Figure 1. Spatial Distribution Map of winter wheat Planting in 8 main wheat producing areas of the Northern Hemisphere for the 2024/25 Season.

Table1. 2 Winter Wheat Cultivation Area, Yield per Unit Area, and Total Production in 8 main wheat producing areas of the Northern Hemisphere from October 2024 to June 2025