Among global soybean producers, Brazil, the United States, and Argentina typically rank as the top three. Considering crop growth cycles, this report focuses on monitoring the soybean production in 2025 for three key Northern Hemisphere countries: the United States, China, and India. Overall, the combined soybean production of these three countries is estimated at 167.35 million metric tons, a decrease of 3.95 million metric tons from 2024, representing a decline of 2.3%. Regional variations in climatic conditions and adjustments in planting area were the main drivers of this change. Among these countries, China demonstrated relatively strong resilience in soybean production, supported by agricultural management measures and policy initiatives. In contrast, India was significantly affected by meteorological stress, while the United States experienced a slight reduction in both planted area and yield due to trade dynamics and localized weather fluctuations.

China's soybean revitalization plan continues to advance. In 2025, the country's total soybean production is projected to reach 19.16 million metric tons, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year. The planted area expanded to 10,074 thousand hectares, up 1.5% from the previous year, largely attributable to effective soil moisture management during the spring planting period in the Northeast region. The national average yield rose by 1.3% to 1,902 kg/ha. Although the Yangtze River Basin experienced above-average spring rainfall, waterlogging risks were mitigated through the selection of suitable crop varieties and improved field drainage management. Meanwhile, the Northeast region benefited from well-matched rainfall and heat conditions, with fewer occurrences of agricultural drought and flooding compared to previous years, contributing to the yield increase.

Both the United States and India saw reductions in soybean planted area, declining by 1.1% and 5.3% year-on-year to 36,075 thousand hectares and 11,658 thousand hectares, respectively. The reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is mainly due to the negative impact of additional tariffs on soybean exports, which has reduced farmers' willingness to grow soybeans. In contrast, the shrinkage of India's soybean planting area is related to the dry weather conditions during the sowing period. The Midwest region of the United States experienced alternating drought and localized flooding from June to July. Although subsequent rainfall alleviated dry conditions, early water stress had already adversely affected flowering and pod setting, leading to a 1.3% decrease in yield to 3,729 kg/ha. In India, the average yield declined by 3.2% to 1,172 kg/ha, mainly due to significant rainfall deficits and abnormal high temperatures in major soybean-growing regions, which impeded grain filling.

Table 1.3 Production Forecast of Major Soybean-Producing Countries in the Northern Hemisphere (August 2025)