From May to July 2025, the tropical region’s CroPI stood at 1.02 , unchanged from the previous year, reflecting generally stable-to-slightly-positive production conditions. This macro-pattern was reflected in rice production across the equatorial and adjacent monsoon zones: the monitoring period coincided with the principal-season rice from transplanting and tillering to heading and grain-filling stages. Yield patterns were primarily driven by precipitation anomalies, further influenced by above-normal temperatures and changes in photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). With high cropland utilization and irrigation support, Indonesia and Vietnam showed production increases; the Philippines and Sri Lanka were largely stable with slight reductions; Thailand and Nigeria saw declines in both yield and area due to drought and heat stress. As shown in Table 1.4, the combined rice output of the five major producing countries increased by 2.3% year on year, in line with the overall stable-to-slightly-positive conditions in the tropical region.

Indonesia and Vietnam: Anticipated Production Gains

Indonesia’s 2025 paddy output is forecast at 67.94 million tons, an increase of 4.7% from 2024, consistent with generally favorable hydrothermal conditions during the May–July period: precipitation was 2% above the long-term average, temperature +0.4°C above normal, PAR 1% higher, and potential cumulative biomass also 1% higher. Cropland utilization was very high at 99%, VCIx reached 0.90, and CroPI was 0.98, higher than the past two years. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was 0.23 (near-neutral) and the crop water stress index was low at 1.72, indicating well-matched water and light-heat conditions from sowing and transplanting through grain-filling.

Vietnam’s rice output is projected at 47.82 million tons, up 6.0% year on year. Although precipitation was significantly below normal (–28%) and potential biomass declined (–7%), PAR rose by 2% and temperature was +0.4°C above normal. Cropland utilization remained at 96%, VCIx was relatively high at 0.93, and CroPI reached 1.02, slightly above the long-term average. PDSI was 1.32 (slightly wet). Favorable irrigation conditions in major producing regions largely offset moisture stress in rainfed areas, supporting yield increases.

Philippines and Sri Lanka: Generally Stable with Slight Reductions

The Philippines’ 2025 rice output is forecast at 20.94 million tons, a marginal decline of 0.6% from 2024. Key monitoring indicators were close to average: precipitation was 2% below, temperature was 0.1°C above, while PAR and potential biomass were near-normal. Cropland utilization was 99% (1% below average), VCIx was 0.93, CroPI was 0.99, and PDSI was +3.12 (slightly wet). Overall rice-growing conditions were stable, with the minor downward adjustment mainly attributed to uneven intra-seasonal rainfall distribution.

Sri Lanka’s rice output is projected at 2.39 million tons, down 1.3% year on year, consistent with monitored resource conditions: precipitation was 15% below 15YA, PAR was 2% below, and potential biomass was 5% below. Cropland utilization remained at 98%, CroPI was 1.00, and PDSI was 0.08 (near neutral). Slightly lower-than-average water availability and solar radiation constrained yields at the margin, resulting in a small decline in production.

Thailand and Nigeria: Drought-Driven Declines

Thailand’s 2025 rice output is projected at 37.41 million tons, a decrease of 2.6% from last year. The country faced pronounced drought pressure during the monitoring period: precipitation was 45% below 15YA, temperature was 1.3°C above, potential biomass was 26% below, and PDSI was –1.11 (moderately dry). While cropland utilization remained at 96% (2% below average), VCIx was 0.95, and CroPI was 1.01, the combined constraints of heat and drought significantly increased risks during the grain-filling stage, ensuring downward pressure on yields.

Nigeria’s 2025 rice output is forecast at 4.18 million tons, a sharp 9.9% decrease—the largest drop among tropical producers. The decline was driven by extremely low precipitation (–48%), leading to markedly reduced potential biomass (–27%), and low cropland utilization (58%, 27% below average). CroPI was only 0.75, PDSI was –1.89 (dry), and the crop water stress index reached 5.67, indicating that both planted area and yields were adversely affected. Close attention is required to monitor rainy-season progress and irrigation accessibility to prevent further decline.

Table 1.4 Forecast Rice Production and Year-on-Year Change for Main Equatorial Countries, 2025