（1）Wheat Production Revision

Using multi-source remote sensing data covering the entire growth period, the 2025 wheat yield of the United States was revised to be 73.04 million tons. Compared with 2024, the yield decreased by 1.57 million tons, representing a year-on-year reduction of 2.1%. This change was mainly driven by the shrinkage of planted area: in 2025, the U.S. wheat planted area decreased from 13,497 thousand hectares (kha) to 13,083 kha, with a reduction rate of 3.1%. In contrast, the national average yield per hectare increased from 5,528 kg/ha to 5,583 kg/ha, a year-on-year growth of 1.0%. Despite the improvement in yield per hectare, it failed to fully offset the negative impact of the reduced planted area.

（2）Maize Production Prediction

By integrating multi-source remote sensing data, machine learning, and transfer learning methods, CropWatch monitored the spatial distribution of maize, soybean, and rice cultivation in the major maize and soybean producing states of the United States in 2025 (Figure 2.4). Furthermore, the light use efficiency model was applied to obtain the yield per hectare prediction results of U.S. maize and soybeans as of mid-August 2025. Based on the monitored results of 2025 planted area and yield per hectare of maize and soybeans, the aggregated prediction results of 2025 planted area, yield per hectare, and total output of U.S. maize and soybeans are presented in Table 2.7.

Figure 2.4 Spatial Distribution Map of Crops in the United States             

Figure 2.7 Table of Planting Area, Yield per Hectare and Total Output of Maize and Soybeans in the United States

As of mid-August 2025, CropWatch monitoring results indicate that U.S. maize production in 2025 showed an overall trend of expanded planted area, decreased yield per hectare, and slightly increased total output. The planted area increased from 32,920 thousand hectares to 34,770 thousand hectares, a growth of 5.6%. This growth was mainly driven by government subsidy policies, bioenergy development strategies, and stable maize prices, which significantly boosted farmers' enthusiasm for planting. Meanwhile, affected by extreme climates such as high-temperature droughts and periodic heavy rains in the core producing areas of the Midwest during the critical growth period, the maize yield per hectare decreased from 11,285 kg/ha to 10,750 kg/ha, a reduction of 4.75%. Despite the decline in yield per hectare, the total output still increased from 371.51 million tons to 373.76 million tons, with a growth rate of approximately 0.6%, relying on the expansion of planted area.

（3）Soybean Production Prediction

CropWatch monitoring results show that as of mid-August 2025, U.S. soybeans in 2025 experienced a reduction in both planted area and yield per hectare, with a year-on-year decrease in total output. The planted area decreased from 36,457 thousand hectares to 36,075 thousand hectares (-1.1%), mainly due to factors such as trade conditions, large fluctuations in market prices, unsatisfactory overall profit expectations, and flood disasters in some areas. Some farmers converted their land to grow crops such as maize with higher economic benefits. The yield per hectare decreased from 3,778 kg/ha to 3,729 kg/ha (-1.3%). Under the combined effect of the decrease in both area and yield per hectare, the total output decreased from 137.74 million tons to 134.52 million tons, a reduction of 2.3%.