Wheat production in Russia consists of two major types: winter wheat and spring wheat. Winter wheat is predominantly cultivated in the Central Black Earth region and the southern Caucasus, where it is typically sown from September to October, enters dormancy during winter, and is harvested from May to July of the following year. Spring wheat, on the other hand, is mainly grown in more northerly or cooler regions, sown from April to May and harvested from July to early September. The Central Black Earth region benefits from fertile chernozem soils and relatively stable precipitation, while the Caucasus region enjoys a more moderate climate. Together, these regions form the core wheat-producing areas of Russia, providing essential support for the country’s grain production.

Figure 2.5 Spatial distribution of wheat yields in Russia’s Central Black Earth and Caucasus regions (Left: 2024; Right: 2025)

According to CropWatch monitoring, Russia’s national wheat planted area continued to expand in 2025, but yields declined year on year, leading to a slight decrease in total production. Specifically, the planted area increased from 29,367.1 thousand hectares in 2024 to 30,226.3 thousand hectares in 2025 (+2.9%); average yield decreased from 3,248.8 kg/hectare to 3,115.5 kg/hectare (–4.1%); national total production fell from 95.41 million tons in 2024 to 94.17 million tons in 2025 (–1.3%). Although the expansion in planted area provided some upward potential, the marked decline in yields in high-output southern regions offset the gains, constraining overall production growth.

From May to July 2025, agrometeorological indicators show that in the Central Black Earth region, precipitation was 12% below the 15-year average, average temperature was +0.3°C above normal, PAR decreased slightly by 2%, and potential biomass dropped by 5%. The CroPI stood at 0.99, indicating production conditions slightly below the five-year average; in some areas, inadequate soil moisture (PDSI –7.3) exerted adverse effects on yields. In the North Caucasus, precipitation fell sharply by 46%, temperatures were +0.5°C higher, biomass declined by 19%, VCIx was only 0.80, and CroPI reached 0.97, making it one of the regions with the most pronounced yield losses (PDSI –3.7, moderately dry). In the South Caucasus, precipitation decreased by 34% and biomass fell by 13%, but CroPI reached 1.20 and VCIx was 0.92, indicating that despite some unfavorable weather conditions, crop growth there was still substantially better than the five-year average. As shown in Figure 2.3, yields in the South Caucasus remained at relatively high levels.

In summary, the primary drivers of the 2025 wheat production decline in Russia were widespread low precipitation and elevated temperatures in the Central Black Earth and North Caucasus regions. By contrast, some northern and eastern production areas maintained stable outputs under more favorable weather conditions. The marked regional disparities in yield suggest that prospects for a near-term recovery in overall production will be challenging.