From May to July 2025, CropWatch focused on monitoring the planting area, yield, and total output of maize in four major producing countries: the United States, China, India, and Ukraine. The results indicated that the year-on-year increase in planting areas across these four major Northern Hemisphere maize producers offset the negative impact of declining yields per hectare, leading to a slight year-on-year growth in total output. However, a significant regional differentiation pattern was observed (Table 1.2). The production resilience of core producing countries strongly sustained the stability of the global maize market.

The total maize planting area in the Northern Hemisphere reached 93,380 thousand hectares, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In contrast, the average yield per hectare across the four countries decreased by 1.5% year-on-year to 7,628 kg/ha, primarily constrained by abnormal climatic conditions. Despite this, the total maize output of the four countries still rose by 1.0% year-on-year to 712.33 million tons.

Specifically, the central corn belt of the United States was affected by extreme weather events from June to August, including combined stress from high temperatures and drought, as well as regional and periodic heavy rainfall, resulting in a 4.7% decline in yield per hectare. Ukraine benefited from sufficient spring precipitation, which supported its maize production, but a summer drought caused a slight 0.7% decrease in yield per hectare. Thanks to the significant expansion of maize planted areas in the United States (+5.6%) and Ukraine (+5.8%), the negative impacts of yield losses were offset, with the maize output of these two countries increasing by 1.0% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively.

India was hit by historic high temperatures and rainfall shortages, leading to a 3.1% drop in yield per hectare. Even though its planting area increased by 2.4% year-on-year, India’s maize output still decreased slightly by 0.8%, making it the only country among the four that experienced a production decline. For China, both the planting area and yield per hectare in the Northeast region—China’s most important maize-producing area—increased year-on-year. This drives a 1.6% year-on-year rise in China’s overall maize yield per hectare, offsetting the impact of reduced planting area in other regions.

Looking ahead to future trends, the precipitation in the U.S. corn belt in August is expected to be 10%-15% higher than the same period in previous years. This will help alleviate the impact of earlier drought on grain maturation, but precautions are needed to avoid harvest delays that may be caused by heavy rainfall. In Northeast China, temperatures and precipitation from August to September are projected to be near normal, which is conducive to the dehydration and maturation of maize grains. Ukraine is expected to experience generally stable climatic conditions during the harvest period, with no significant fluctuations in yield per hectare anticipated. Overall, the total global maize output in 2025 is still expected to remain above 1.1 billion tons.

Table 1.2 Yield Forecast of Major North Hemisphere Corn-Producing Countries (August 2025)