During the monitoring period from July to September 2025, coinciding with South Africa’s winter wheat growing season, the national wheat planting area was 664,000 hectares, a slight decrease of 0.6% from the previous year, indicating overall stability in scale. The main production areas remain concentrated in the southwestern Mediterranean climate zone, particularly in the coastal plains and valleys of the Western Cape, which feature the largest cultivated area and most stable yields, with a planting ratio of up to 92%. Despite overall insufficient rainfall, this region received 105 mm of precipitation during the monitoring period—the highest in the country for the same period—with a maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) of 0.99, indicating good crop growth.

However, only about 10% of this area is irrigated, with the vast majority of wheat fields relying on rain-fed agriculture. Uneven spatial and temporal rainfall distribution led to inconsistent germination and reduced tillering in some areas. Additionally, temperatures were 0.9°C above average, exacerbating moisture loss, resulting in a national average yield of 2.86 t/ha and total production of approximately 1.9 million tons, a 1.6% decline from 2024.

Overall, production in the Mediterranean climate zone and the subtropical humid region remained stable, while semi-arid prairie areas maintained high VCIx values. Early sowing and drought-resistant management measures effectively mitigated drought impacts. Nevertheless, the decline in potential biomass indicates yield limitations, and persistent hot and dry conditions would continue to pose risks.

Going forward, it is essential to continuously monitor water conditions, strengthen irrigation scheduling, and optimize water resource allocation to enhance wheat production resilience, ensuring stable output and supply.

Figure 2.13: Spatial Distribution Map of Winter Wheat in South Africa

Figure 2.14: Spatial Distribution Map of Winter Wheat Yield in South Africa