In 2025, wheat production in the Southern Hemisphere showed an overall upward trend, with total output reaching 58.88 million tons, up 9.6% from 53.72 million tons in 2024. The planted area expanded from 20.62 million hectares (ha) to 21.09 million ha (+2.3%), while yield per hectare increased from 2,605 kg/ha to 2,792 kg/ha (+7.2%). Country-level performance varied: Argentina and Australia experienced production increases, South Africa remained largely stable, and Brazil saw a decline (Table 1.4).

Argentina saw a 23.7% year-on-year increase in wheat production, driven by favorable agri-climatic conditions and a significant expansion in planted area. In core regions such as Buenos Aires and the Pampas, July–September rainfall exceeded the 15-year average by over 30%, boosting potential biomass by 19%. Cultivation in semi-arid areas expanded by 21%, raising total planted area to 6.88 million ha. Yield reached 3.53 t/ha, resulting in total production of 24.29 million tons, contributing the majority of the Southern Hemisphere’s production growth.

Australia benefited from rainfall approximately 15% above average, with potential biomass increasing by 7.1%. Yield is expected to rise from 2,205 kg/ha to 2,311 kg/ha (+4.8%). Despite a slight year-on-year reduction in planted area, production is projected at 27.77 million tons, up 2.4% from 2024.

Brazil faced drought in Rio Grande do Sul combined with economic pressures, causing a 5.7% reduction in planted area to 1.529 million ha. Main producing states experienced 31% less cumulative rainfall, reducing potential biomass by 14%. Yield dropped to 3.04 t/ha, resulting in total production of 4.65 million tons, down 7.7%.

South Africa maintained stable production in Mediterranean climate zones, though rain-fed areas were limited. The Western Cape, a high-yield region, received below-average rainfall, lowering the national average yield to 2.86 t/ha. Planted area remained 664,000 ha, and total production slightly decreased 1.6% to 1.9 million tons, effectively maintaining self-sufficiency.

Overall, climate remains the decisive factor for Southern Hemisphere wheat production due to limited irrigation. Argentina and Australia achieved production gains through abundant rainfall and suitable temperatures, while Brazil and South Africa faced yield constraints from drought or heat stress combined with insufficient irrigation. Planting area adjustments were influenced by economic signals: favorable grain prices in Argentina and Australia supported expansion, while Brazil’s lower price ratio favored soybean and corn cultivation over wheat. Argentina’s stockpiles surged, and Southern Hemisphere exportable wheat supply is expected to increase by over 10% in the 2025/26 season. If La Niña develops during the Southern Hemisphere summer, it may bring excessive rainfall to Australia’s harvest and increase the risk of pests and diseases in Argentina, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring of soil moisture and vegetation indices.

Table 1.4 Production Forecast of Major Winter Whaet Countries in the Northern Hemisphere