Relying on the CropWatch Cloud platform and integrating multi-source satellite remote sensing data, ground observations and meteorological data, this issue systematically assesses the production situation of major grain and oil crops worldwide for July–September 2026; it reassesses Northern Hemisphere maize and soybean production and equatorial rice production, forecasts Southern Hemisphere wheat production, and analyzes extreme weather such as drought and heat together with the evolution of the 2026/27 El Niño. For the 20 major food-producing countries, high-resolution remote sensing monitoring and reassessment of the planted area, yield and production of major crops were carried out.

July–September 2026 coincided with the maturation and harvest of summer grains in the Northern Hemisphere, the start of autumn sowing of winter wheat, and the grain-filling stage of Southern Hemisphere winter wheat. Global agroclimatic conditions exhibited pronounced regional differentiation: western Europe to western Central Europe, the North American Southern Great Plains, the West African Sahel belt, northern Central Asia, the Argentine Pampas, and the southwestern wheat belt of Australia were the main rainfall-deficit zones; root-zone soil moisture was below average over nearly 70% of the world's cropland, and the share of cropland area at high risk of water stress continued to expand. Above-average rainfall prevailed in the US Corn Belt, the Paraná basin of South America, the northern East European Plain, the Ganges Plain and the Indochinese Peninsula, and the lower Yangtze of China.

The global Crop Production Index for the monitoring period (CroPI-7) was 1.12, above the baseline and above the 1.05 of the same period in 2025, but with marked spatial differentiation: the major agricultural regions of South America and the southeastern wheat belt of Australia were markedly favorable, while the French plains–Massif Central and the northern fringe of the West African Sahel formed the more concentrated weak zones, presenting a pattern of a markedly favorable Southern Hemisphere, a slightly favorable Northern Hemisphere, and a clearly recovering tropics.

Global production of major grain and oil crops continued to grow steadily: soybean led the increase, wheat and maize posted steady gains, and rice shifted from decline to growth. The combined production of the four major grain and oil crops reached 3,340.51 million tonnes, up 91.04 million tonnes year-on-year, an increase of 2.8%. Global maize production was 1,216.88 million tonnes, up 23.74 million tonnes year-on-year (+2.0%); rice production was 816.98 million tonnes, up 19.46 million tonnes (+2.4%); wheat production was 847.98 million tonnes, up 25.30 million tonnes (+3.1%), of which Southern Hemisphere wheat production is forecast at 57.09 million tonnes, down 8.2% year-on-year; soybean production was 458.67 million tonnes, up 22.53 million tonnes (+5.2%). China's full-year grain production was 685.05 million tonnes, up about 1.0% year-on-year, and its maize production of 265.48 million tonnes accounted for 21.8% of the global maize total.

The 2026/27 El Niño will continue to intensify, is expected to peak around December, and will maintain strong-to-very-strong conditions into early 2027. Analysis based on CropWatch's phenology-aligned ENSO exposure model indicates that the most significant impacts will occur in regions where ENSO anomalies overlap the growing periods of major cereals. The next monitoring period must continue to closely track its evolution and its differentiated impacts on global agriculture, so as to assess the potential effects on crop growth and production prospects.