During the monitoring period (July–September 2026), the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions and early-warning indicators of the 14 major global regions are given in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 Agroclimatic, agronomic and early-warning indicators for the 14 major global regions

East Africa: largely stable across the plateau heartland, weaker in some farming areas

Accumulated rainfall across East Africa was 44% below average, average temperature was 1.7°C above average, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 1% above average, and potential accumulated biomass was 18% below average, but water–heat conditions within the plateau varied: temperatures were above average on the Ethiopian Highlands; radiation was close to average in the central-south; potential biomass was close to average in the north and the centre-east and below average in the south and the west. In the Equatorial East African highlands, rainfall and potential biomass were mostly below average, while radiation was broadly close to average. Under the warm, dry conditions, regional cropland moisture supply was tight (CWSIrisk 4.76, equivalent to a drought risk of about once in 4.8 years; higher values indicate higher risk); the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was 69%, 12% below the 5-year average (5YA); and the maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.55. The regional CroPI-7 was 1.08, with pronounced internal differentiation: CroPI-7 was close to average to favorable in the main farming areas of the north-central Ethiopian Highlands, while weaker signals were more distributed along the plateau margins and in some southeastern farming areas; low-value patches also occurred in the western Equatorial East African highlands and near the lake zone, interleaved with adjacent normal farming areas. The monitoring period covered the growth and yield formation of main-season cereals on the northern plateau, and the first-season harvest and next-season establishment in the equatorial bimodal-rainfall zones; the below-average rainfall was unfavorable for rainfed cereals still in the field, and subsequent rainfall remains important for main-season cereal growth along the plateau margins and in the western highlands, as well as for next-season establishment in the bimodal-rainfall zones.

West Africa and the Sahel: weak along the northern Sahel fringe, better in the southern farming areas

Accumulated rainfall across West Africa and the Sahel was 38% below average, average temperature was 1.3°C above average, PAR was 4% above average, and potential accumulated biomass was 18% below average. Within the region, the Sahel belt received below-average rainfall with above-average temperatures (the warming was especially pronounced in the central and eastern segments) and generally below-average potential biomass; radiation was close to average over most areas and locally above. Negative departures of rainfall and potential biomass along the Gulf of Guinea coast and the adjacent hinterland were more pronounced in the west, gradually transitioning to near-average eastward. Regional CALF was 89%, 4% above the 5YA; VCIx was 0.58; CWSIrisk was 2.78; and CroPI-7 was 1.06. The production situation showed a pattern of weakness along the northern Sahel fringe with relatively better conditions in the southern savannas and the Gulf of Guinea hinterland: low values were distributed along the northern flank of the rainfed agricultural belt, locally below 0.85; moving south into the Sudanian and Guinean savannas, more farming areas were at or above the baseline, with parts of the Gulf of Guinea hinterland reaching above 1.15. During July–September, rainfed millet, sorghum and maize in the Sahel shifted from the end of sowing into growth and yield formation; the weak signals along the northern fringe were consistent with the moisture limitation caused by low rainfall and warmth; some southern areas had entered harvest, while later-sown farming areas still warrant attention to rainfall in the late growth stages; the double-cropping zones along the Gulf of Guinea coast were at the transition between main-season harvest and second-season sowing and growth, a phenological course different from that of the single-season rainfed grain zones in the north.

Southern Africa: favorable inland, winter wheat under moisture pressure

Accumulated rainfall across Southern Africa was 44% above average, average temperature was close to normal (+0.0°C), PAR was 6% below average, and potential accumulated biomass was 5% above average, with marked internal contrasts in agroclimatic conditions. Rainfall and potential biomass were above average in the inland maize belt, with temperatures generally close to normal; on the eastern edge of the inland western plateau, temperatures and radiation were below average; on the central-eastern plateau, rainfall and radiation were close to average and potential biomass was below average; some northern plateau farming areas received above-average rainfall with near-average potential biomass; the Southwestern Cape wheat region received clearly below-average rainfall with above-average temperatures, and both radiation and potential biomass were below average. Regional CALF was 57%, markedly 27% above the 5YA; VCIx was 0.67; CWSIrisk was 2.50; and CroPI-7 reached 1.37. CroPI-7 was generally high on the inland plateau, with more concentrated high-value zones in parts of the Zambezi basin and in the South African interior; the Southwestern Cape wheat region remained overall above the baseline but less strongly than the inland. During the monitoring period, the main inland summer grain crops were mostly at the end of harvest or in the post-harvest stage, and agricultural activity was gradually shifting to new-season land preparation, with the increased rainfall serving mainly to replenish soil moisture reserves; winter wheat in the Southwestern Cape was still growing in the field, where the dry, warm conditions have a more direct impact on growth — the late-season moisture-supply risk for winter wheat and the post-harvest situation of the inland summer grains warrant separate attention.

North America: Corn Belt broadly stable, Southern Great Plains locally weak

Accumulated rainfall across North America was 5% below average, average temperature was 1.0°C above average, and PAR and potential accumulated biomass were 3% and 2% below average, respectively, with the central agricultural belt presenting a sharp contrast between a wet Corn Belt and a dry Southern Great Plains. The US Corn Belt received generally above-average rainfall with above-average temperatures; radiation was below average in the central-south, and potential biomass was mostly above average. The Southern Great Plains received clearly below-average rainfall with pronounced warming; radiation was broadly close to average and potential biomass was clearly below average; areas of below-average rainfall and potential biomass also occurred along the lower Mississippi. The Northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies received near-average rainfall, with above- and below-average areas interleaved. Regional CALF was 93% (departure 0%); VCIx was 0.72; CWSIrisk was 1.96; and CroPI-7 was 1.10. The production situation in the US Corn Belt was broadly stable, with CroPI-7 mostly close to average to slightly favorable (agricultural-zone mean 1.05) and no extensive contiguous low values; most of the Canadian prairie wheat region was also above the baseline; the Southern Great Plains showed pronounced internal differences, with weak patches interleaved with normal and favorable farming areas and some areas below 0.85. The monitoring period covered yield formation to maturity–harvest of maize and soybeans, the harvest of northern spring wheat, and the sowing of the new-season winter wheat. The Corn Belt's good moisture conditions benefited the late growth of summer crops; in the north, attention is needed for the impact of rainfall on harvest operations, while the Southern Plains warrant attention to both the water shortage of in-field crops and the soil moisture for the autumn sowing of the next winter-wheat season.

South America: Paraná and Pampas heartlands favorable

Accumulated rainfall across South America was 7% above average, average temperature was 0.3°C above average, PAR was 8% below average, and potential accumulated biomass was 1% above average, with positive and negative departures largely cancelling within the region. Rainfall and potential biomass were generally above average in the Paraná basin, temperatures were close to average over most areas, and radiation was clearly below average; the main Pampas farming areas had below-average rainfall, radiation and potential biomass, with temperatures mostly close to average (locally cool in the north and the southwest), while the western piedmont transition zone contained areas of above-average rainfall and potential biomass; parts of the central-western Brazilian Highlands had below-average rainfall and potential biomass, with the rainfall deficit more pronounced in the northeast. Regional CALF was 82%, 10% above the 5YA; VCIx was 0.68; CWSIrisk was 2.08; and CroPI-7 reached 1.30. The Paraná basin and the Pampas heartland formed a broad CroPI-7 high-value zone (values above 1.15 were fairly concentrated), and the double-cropping agricultural region of central Brazil was also mostly favorable; patches at or below the baseline occurred east of the lower Paraná, in the Mesopotamia region and in adjacent southern farming-grazing areas. During the monitoring period, Pampas winter wheat was in in-field growth; although the index was high this period, the constraint of insufficient rainfall and radiation on subsequent growth still requires effective rainfall to relieve it; south-central Brazil was at the transition between the end of the second-season maize harvest and the sowing of new-season soybean and first-season maize, where dry weather favored harvest operations, but the successful establishment of the new-season crops still depends on sowing-period rainfall and soil moisture.

Caribbean: marked inter-island differences, some farming areas weak

Accumulated rainfall across the Caribbean was 41% below average, average temperature was 1.2°C above average, PAR was close to normal (−1%), and potential accumulated biomass was 22% below average, with the rainfall deficit on Hispaniola more pronounced than on Cuba. Under the warm, dry conditions, cropland moisture supply was tight (CWSIrisk 3.57), but regional CALF remained at 98% (departure +1%), VCIx was 0.67, and CroPI-7 was 1.01. Production conditions differed among the islands: CroPI-7 was close to average in the main farming areas of Cuba, while some farming areas on Hispaniola showed clearly lower values. During the monitoring period, the spring grain harvest and the establishment of next-season crops proceeded in succession; the below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures increased the moisture-supply pressure on rainfed crops, and the next-season emergence and early growth in the weaker farming areas warrant attention.

Northeast Asia: main autumn-grain regions broadly stable

Accumulated rainfall across Northeast Asia was 4% below average, average temperature was 0.2°C above average, and PAR and potential accumulated biomass were both 4% below average, with pronounced regional differentiation in the water–heat configuration. In China, the Huanghuaihai received below-average rainfall with above-average temperatures; radiation was close to average over most areas and potential biomass was below average. On the Loess Plateau, rainfall and potential biomass showed a mix of near-average and below-average values. The lower Yangtze received above-average rainfall with near-average temperatures; radiation was clearly below average, yet potential biomass remained above average. Northeast China received near- to above-average rainfall with mostly near-average temperatures; potential biomass was below average in the west and above average in the centre-east. The Southwest was mostly below average in rainfall, with below-average potential biomass in parts of the north. Cropland was fully planted region-wide (CALF 99%, departure +1%), and moisture supply and crop growth were good (CWSIrisk 1.75, VCIx 0.86); CroPI-7 was 1.07. CroPI-7 in China's main autumn-grain regions was overall close to average to slightly favorable, with fairly continuous distributions across the main farming areas of the Northeast Plain, the Huanghuaihai and the lower Yangtze (agricultural-zone means of 1.09, 1.04 and 1.07, respectively), while low values mostly appeared as local patches; parts of the Loess Plateau and the northern agro-pastoral transitional zone were higher, though internal differences there were also pronounced. July–September covered yield formation to maturity–harvest of northern maize, soybean and single-season rice, and the main autumn-grain regions remained broadly stable; the Huanghuaihai warrants attention to the effects of the dry, warm conditions on late-maturing crops; single-season and late-season rice on the lower Yangtze differ in phenological progress, and for rice still at the heading–grain-filling stage, insufficient sunshine and late-season harvest weather are the main concerns.

Southeast Asia: main rice zones stable, islands locally weak

Dragged down by the markedly low rainfall of the Malay Archipelago, accumulated rainfall across Southeast Asia was 21% below average, average temperature was 0.5°C above average, PAR was 4% below average, and potential accumulated biomass was 15% below average, with a sharp contrast between mainland and island agroclimatic conditions. The Indochinese Peninsula received near- to above-average rainfall with generally near-average temperatures; radiation was below average and potential biomass was mostly close to average. Many parts of the Malay Archipelago had clearly below-average rainfall and potential biomass with above-average temperatures; radiation was locally above average in Kalimantan and mostly close to average in Sumatra and Java. Regional CALF was 96%, 7% above the 5YA; VCIx was 0.66; CWSIrisk was 2.70; and CroPI-7 was 1.03. CroPI-7 in the main rice zones of the Indochinese Peninsula was mostly close to average to favorable, with no extensive contiguous low values in the Chao Phraya lowlands, the northeastern wet-season rice zone or around Tonle Sap; the Red River Delta was overall close to average, and the Mekong Delta contained a mix of normal and weak patches. Internal differences were larger on the islands: some farming areas of Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan were weak, but the main agricultural areas overall remained near the baseline. During the monitoring period, the mainland main wet-season rice was still growing; delta double-cropping zones combined the summer–autumn rice harvest with the establishment and growth of autumn–winter rice; the archipelago was at the transition between the dry-season rice harvest and next-season sowing. Going forward, attention is warranted, respectively, to the effects of peninsular low sunshine and local water shortages on the photosynthetic accumulation of in-field rice, and to the moisture supply of rainfed island farming areas and perennial crops.

South Asia: Ganges Plain stable, northwestern arid zone weak

Pulled down by the rainfall deficit in the southern peninsula, accumulated rainfall across South Asia was 18% below average, average temperature was 0.5°C above average, PAR was 2% below average, and potential accumulated biomass was 12% below average. Moisture conditions within the region differed markedly: the Ganges Plain received near- to above-average rainfall with mostly near-average temperatures; radiation was below average in some areas and potential biomass was mostly close to average. Parts of the central-eastern peninsula also received above-average rainfall, while the southwest and the southern peninsula had pronounced rainfall and potential-biomass deficits with above-average temperatures. Regional CALF was 89% (departure +1%); VCIx was 0.70; CWSIrisk was 2.17; and CroPI-7 was 1.04. The production situation showed stability across the Ganges Plain and parts of the Deccan but weakness in the northwestern arid agricultural zone: CroPI-7 was mostly at or slightly above the baseline on the Ganges Plain, and the lower Indus irrigated zone was also mostly normal to favorable; the northwestern arid zone formed a more concentrated low-value core, with some areas below 0.75, and scattered weak patches occurred elsewhere within the peninsula. This period covered the shift of monsoon crops from the end of sowing and transplanting into growth and yield formation, as well as the interleave of early-season rice harvest and main-season rice growth in the lower Ganges; moisture supply was overall good on the Ganges Plain and in the central-eastern peninsula, while the dry, warm rainfed farming areas of the northwest and the southern peninsula are more susceptible to water shortages; going forward, water use during grain filling–maturity and harvest weather warrant separate attention for each rice zone in light of its sowing date and irrigation conditions.

Central Asia: differentiated northern spring-wheat zone, favorable southern oases

Accumulated rainfall across Central Asia was 32% below average, average temperature was 1.4°C above average, PAR was close to normal (−1%), and potential accumulated biomass was 7% below average. Within the region, the northern spring-wheat belt received below-average rainfall with clearly above-average temperatures; radiation was broadly close to average and potential biomass was clearly below average. Supported by southern oasis irrigation and soil-moisture buffering, regional CWSIrisk remained at 2.50; CALF was 59% (5% above the 5YA); VCIx was 0.64; and CroPI-7 reached 1.34. Spatially, CroPI-7 in the northern spring-wheat belt was overall close to average, but below- and above-average farming areas interleaved, locally forming more pronounced low-value patches; the southern oases and the piedmont-valley agricultural zones were mostly above the baseline. The monitoring period spanned the late growth and the main harvest window of northern rainfed spring wheat; the dry, warm conditions were unfavorable for fields still in grain filling but, after maturity, favorable for grain dehydration and harvest operations; southern winter wheat had been successively harvested, while irrigated rice and maize were still growing and being harvested in the field — their production situation depends mainly on irrigation water supply and should be judged separately from the northern rainfed spring-wheat zone.

Western Europe: French plains markedly weak, northern Central Europe better

A fairly continuous warm–dry anomaly zone formed from Western Europe to western Central Europe: accumulated rainfall was 41% below average region-wide, average temperature was 1.6°C above average, PAR was 4% above average (clearly above over the French plains and southern Britain, transitioning to mostly near-average toward eastern Central Europe), and potential accumulated biomass was 18% below average. The combination of warmth, dryness and stronger radiation intensified cropland moisture deficits: regional CWSIrisk reached 3.70; CALF was 78% (7% below the 5YA); VCIx was 0.67; and CroPI-7 was 0.99. Internal differentiation in the production situation was pronounced: the French plains and the Massif Central formed one of the most concentrated low-value zones globally this period, with CroPI-7 mostly below 0.85 in the western mixed-farming zone and the eastern farming areas and some contiguous areas below 0.75; the southwestern maize zone was also broadly weak, and the main farming areas of southern Britain were likewise low. Moving northeast into the northern Central European Plain, the production situation turned markedly better, with the northern and northwestern German wheat regions mostly above the baseline. Winter cereals were successively harvested during this period; the main in-field impact of the warm, dry conditions concentrated on summer crops such as maize at the grain-filling to maturity stages, with moisture limitation especially prominent in the main low-value areas of France; as the latter part of the monitoring period turned to winter-crop sowing, autumn sowing in the drier southwestern and central farming areas still requires effective rainfall to replenish soil moisture.

Eastern Europe: broadly stable, Pannonian Plain weak

Water–heat conditions across Eastern Europe were overall stable: accumulated rainfall was 2% above average, average temperature was close to normal (+0.0°C), PAR was 3% below average, and potential accumulated biomass was 2% above average. Within the region, the Baltic coast, the northern East European Plain, the Central Black Earth region and the middle Volga had above-average rainfall and potential biomass, with mostly near-average temperatures and locally below-average radiation; rainfall and potential biomass were mostly close to average over the northern Black Sea coast proper, while its northeastern side toward the North Caucasus was clearly below; the warming was more pronounced toward the Urals transition zone, with varied rainfall conditions. Regional CALF was 90% (departure 0%); VCIx reached 0.77; CWSIrisk was 2.50; and CroPI-7 was 1.13, with most major farming areas close to average to favorable. However, the Pannonian Plain contained a more concentrated low-value zone (locally CroPI-7 0.75–0.85), contrasting with the favorable conditions of the Polish Plain to the north and the northern East European Plain; the north-central part of the northern Black Sea coast was broadly stable, with high and low values interleaved in the south and adjacent areas; the middle Volga was mostly normal to favorable, with more local weak signals beyond the Urals transition. During the monitoring period, the winter-cereal harvest, the late growth and maturation of summer crops, and the sowing of the new-season winter wheat proceeded in succession; the more abundant rainfall in the north and the central plains favored soil-moisture replenishment; production pressure on summer crops was more pronounced on the Pannonian Plain, and the locally dry farming areas of the Black Sea coast and the North Caucasus warrant attention to moisture conditions for autumn sowing.

Mediterranean: favorable production situation, winter grains shift to pre-sowing preparation

The Mediterranean was in its low-rainfall summer period: accumulated rainfall was 12% below average region-wide (below along many parts of the European and North African coasts, with larger differences on the eastern Mediterranean shore and in the Anatolian interior), average temperature was 0.3°C above average, PAR was 3% below average, and potential accumulated biomass was 4% below average. Because most winter cereals had completed harvest in the early part of this period or before and were in post-harvest fallow, regional CALF was 38% but 7% above the 5YA; with irrigation support, CWSIrisk was 2.33; VCIx was 0.68; and CroPI-7 reached 1.45. CroPI-7 was high in many places along the Mediterranean coast and in Anatolia, with more concentrated high values in the North African coastal agricultural zone and central Anatolia; the Nile Valley and Delta were also overall above the baseline, where valley irrigated summer grains were still growing or being successively harvested. As agricultural activity turns to land preparation and sowing for the next winter-grain season, the focus of attention gradually shifts to effective autumn rainfall and irrigation supply, with particular tracking of whether the rainfed wheat areas receive sufficient sowing rainfall.

Oceania: southeastern wheat belt favorable, northern edge of the southwest locally weak

Accumulated rainfall across Oceania was 19% below average, average temperature was 0.7°C above average, PAR was 6% below average, and potential accumulated biomass was 12% below average, with conditions differing markedly within the main wheat belts. The southwestern wheat belt of Australia had below-average rainfall and radiation with above-average temperatures, and clearly below-average potential biomass; the eastern semi-humid subtropical farming areas also had below-average rainfall and potential biomass; the southeastern inland wheat belt had near-average rainfall and potential biomass, locally above, with conditions clearly better than in the drier southwest and east, although negative departures remained along the southeast coast and in Tasmania. Cropland planting was stable region-wide (CALF 93%, departure −1%), and moisture and crop growth were generally acceptable (CWSIrisk 1.89, VCIx 0.74); CroPI-7 was 1.14, presenting a pattern of a favorable southeast with weak southwestern margins and parts of the east: CroPI-7 in the southeastern inland wheat belt was mostly above 1.15 (agricultural-zone mean 1.29), indicating a good production situation; the southwestern wheat belt was overall close to average to slightly favorable, with weak patches more concentrated in the north; the eastern semi-humid agricultural belt had interleaved high and low values, locally below 0.85. During the monitoring period, winter wheat and barley continued to grow, and by September some producing areas had entered the heading–flowering to grain-filling stages; as spring temperatures rise, subsequent rainfall for the northern edge of the southwest and the drier eastern farming areas is particularly important for maintaining cereal grain filling and yield formation.