1.2.1 Global Crop Production of Major Grain and Oil Crops

In 2026, the production of the four major global grain and oil crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—maintained an overall stable and positive trend. Total production continued to grow steadily, and the pace of increase broadened relative to the August bulletin. The supply resilience of major producing countries remained generally strong, and the global grain and oil supply landscape remained broadly stable and ample. Compared with the August bulletin, the latest reassessment revised rice production markedly upward, with modest upward revisions for soybean and wheat and a slight downward revision for maize.

In 2026, total global production of major grain and oil crops reached 3,340.51 million tonnes, an increase of 91.04 million tonnes, or 2.8%, over 2025, indicating continued growth in global grain production capacity. By crop type, soybean recorded the largest percentage increase, with production reaching 458.67 million tonnes, up 22.53 million tonnes year-on-year (+5.2%). Global wheat production was 847.98 million tonnes, up 25.30 million tonnes (+3.1%). Maize production was 1,216.88 million tonnes, up 23.74 million tonnes (+2.0%). Rice production was 816.98 million tonnes, up 19.46 million tonnes year-on-year (+2.4%).

The latest data show that production in the 20 major producing countries under focused monitoring remained generally stable, with significant differences among crops. Maize production was generally favorable, with increased output from major producing countries supporting the rise in global production. Monitored maize production in the 20 major producing countries was 1,082.95 million tonnes, an increase of 2.7% over 2025. Stable production in these countries consolidated the foundation of global maize supply. Forecast production in countries other than the major producers was 82.34 million tonnes, down 6.4% year-on-year, partially offsetting the production increase in the major producing countries. Monitored rice production in the 20 major producing countries was 670.68 million tonnes, up 3.0% year-on-year. Rice production in other countries was 72.08 million tonnes, down 0.3% year-on-year, and global rice production shifted from decline to growth. Wheat production growth came mainly from countries outside the major producing group. Monitored wheat production in the 20 major producing countries was 646.76 million tonnes, down slightly by 0.4% year-on-year, while monitored production in other countries was 145.02 million tonnes, up sharply by 20.0% year-on-year. The Middle East, North Africa, and other regions continued to gain momentum, becoming important sources of incremental global wheat production and pushing global wheat production growth to 3.1%. Major soybean-producing countries showed a clear trend of increased production, and global production capacity continued to improve. Monitored soybean production in major producing countries was 411.89 million tonnes, up 5.5% year-on-year. Soybean crop conditions in core producing areas of South America were favorable, with significant production increases, making them the core driver of global soybean production growth. Soybean production in other countries was 46.78 million tonnes, up 2.6% year-on-year, jointly driving a 5.2% year-on-year increase in total global soybean production and a continued improvement in soybean supply capacity.

The global major grain and oil trade pattern remained stable, with overall robust export supply capacity and continuously improving self-sufficiency on the import side. On the export side, maize and soybean production in the top 10 exporting countries maintained steady growth, rice production shifted from decline to growth, and wheat production increased slightly. Among them, maize production was 709.05 million tonnes (+3.5%), soybean production was 401.96 million tonnes (+5.3%), and wheat production was 378.34 million tonnes (+1.4%), while rice production was 571.82 million tonnes, up 3.5% year-on-year. The production increase structure of the top five core exporting countries was basically consistent with that of the top 10 exporting countries: maize production was 647.02 million tonnes (+3.0%), soybean production was 378.07 million tonnes (+5.5%), and wheat production was 231.45 million tonnes (+2.2%), all showing steady increases, while rice production was 336.26 million tonnes, up 5.0% year-on-year. Core exporting countries demonstrated strong supply resilience for oilseeds and grains. On the import side, major global importers continued to improve their self-sufficiency, with production of most crops increasing. Maize production in the top 10 importing countries was 320.18 million tonnes (+2.3%), wheat production was 197.17 million tonnes (+7.2%), and soybean production reached 69.21 million tonnes, up sharply by 10.8% year-on-year; rice production rose 0.8%, to 344.90 million tonnes. Among the top five importing countries, wheat and soybean production increased notably, by 4.9% and 10.8%, respectively, while maize increased by 2.6% and rice by 1.5%. The continuous improvement in grain self-sufficiency levels among major importing countries has effectively alleviated pressure on global grain and oil trade supply.

Overall, in 2026, global production and supply of major grain and oil crops were ample, with the crop structure continuing to improve. Soybean led the increase in percentage terms, wheat and maize posted steady gains, and rice shifted from decline to growth. Major producing countries maintained stable or increased production, and the supply-demand structure of major trading countries remained stable. Global food security assurance capacity continued to strengthen, providing strong support for the stable operation of international grain and oil markets. At the same time, climate uncertainty remains the primary risk. Periodic extreme weather events and regional drought stress may still disrupt later-stage crop growth and yield formation. CropWatch will continue to use satellite remote sensing data to track crop conditions in major producing regions worldwide and update production forecasts in a timely manner.

Table 1.2 Remote sensing monitoring and forecasting of major grain and oil crops globally and for major exporting and importing countries (production in million tonnes)