From July to September 2026, maize in the Northern Hemisphere entered its critical growth stages and localized harvest period. CropWatch conducted focused monitoring of maize planting area, yield, and production in four major maize-producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere: the United States, China, India, and Ukraine. The results indicate that the total planted area of the four countries increased slightly year-on-year, while the average yield and total production decreased slightly. However, national production patterns diverged markedly: China contributed most of the incremental growth, Ukraine's production edged up, U.S. production slightly decreased, and although India still faced unfavorable climatic conditions, the situation eased compared to the previous monitoring period.

Total maize planted area across the four countries is estimated at about 90,332 thousand hectares, up approximately 0.5% year on year. The average yield is about 8,220 kg/ha, a decrease of about 0.6% compared with the same period last year. Total maize production is projected at 742.55 million tonnes, broadly flat year on year (a slight decrease of about 0.1%). In Ukraine, maize showed a structural pattern of slightly lower area, recovering yield and modestly higher production: after maize entered the pollination stage in mid-to-late July and the grain-filling stage in August, although there were periodic high temperatures in the main producing areas, rainfall during the critical stages was relatively timely, and no large-scale, persistent extreme drought occurred; planted area decreased 1.3% year-on-year to 4.535 million hectares, while yield rose 2.53% to 8,865 kg/ha, lifting total production by 1.2% to 40.20 million tonnes, with the increase driven mainly by yield recovery rather than area expansion. China's production increased slightly by 0.8% to 265.48 million tonnes, with the increase mainly attributed to the expansion of planted area in Heilongjiang and the improvement of yields in North China. The U.S. maize planted area slightly increased by 0.30%, while the yield slightly decreased by 0.69%. Total production is estimated at 403.05 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 0.39%. RADPAR was 4% below average, which have restricted dry matter accumulation to a certain extent. India is the only one of the four countries with a clearly weaker production outlook. Average rainfall was 5% below average. However, compared with the 14% rainfall deficit in the previous period, the weak conditions of moisture and climatic production potential have somewhat eased. India’s total maize production is projected at 33.82 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 4.89%.

Looking ahead, considering that the maize in the Northern Hemisphere is about to or has already entered the harvest period, the outlook of a loosening global maize supply in 2026 is basically established. However, regional climate risks, actual harvest performance, and geopolitical/logistics factors still warrant continuous tracking.

Table 1 Yield Forecast of Major North Hemisphere maize-Producing Countries (July-September 2026)