Among the world’s major soybean-producing countries, Brazil, the United States, and Argentina are typically the top three, followed by China and India. Considering crop phenology, this report focuses on monitoring the 2026 soybean production outlook in three Northern Hemisphere countries: the United States, China, and India. Overall, the combined soybean production of these three countries is about 170.09 million tonnes, up roughly 1.3% from 2025.

China’s total soybean production is projected to reach 19.70 million tonnes, an increase of 0.44 million tonnes (2.3%) compared with 2025. The traditional competitive producing area of Heilongjiang in the Northeast shows a small structural decline, while multiple regions—including the North China Plain, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Southwest China, and Northwest China—are contributing to growth, with Henan and Hubei increasing by as much as 7.0% and 5.9%, respectively. National soybean production is becoming more diversified and balanced, and the yield gains from the soybean–maize strip intercropping system continue to be evident.

In the United States, soybean planted area is estimated at 35,190 thousand hectares, down 1.3% year on year. However, yield is expected to rise 1.7% to 3,872.46 kg/ha, bringing total production to an estimated 136.27 million tonnes. Higher soybean yields have offset the reduction in planted area, allowing U.S. soybean production to achieve slight growth, up 0.5% year on year. During the monitoring period, precipitation in the United States was 8.2% above normal; the increase in rainfall generally improved water supply in major agricultural production areas and was conducive to soybean flowering and pod setting. The average temperature was 1.1°C higher than normal, photosynthetically active radiation was 3.9% below normal, and crop growth was broadly stable. The cropped arable land fraction decreased by 1 percentage point compared with the same period of the previous five years, and the soybean planted area decreased by a similar margin. The maximum vegetation condition index (VCI) was 0.88, and the Crop Production Index (CroPI) was 1.06, indicating favorable production conditions.

Soybean growth conditions in India improved markedly compared with the previous monitoring period, with earlier sowing and moisture constraints somewhat alleviated. Soybean planted area is about 12,235 thousand hectares, up 1.6% year on year; average yield is about 1,154 kg/ha, up 6.5% year on year; and total production is projected at about 14.12 million tonnes, up 8.1% year on year. During the monitoring period, nationwide precipitation in India was 5% below the long-term average and temperatures were 0.4°C higher than normal. In India’s soybean-growing areas, the share of cropland planted is 98%, 7% higher than the five-year average for the same period, the best VCI is 0.98, and the CroPI is 1.09, indicating that planting coverage and vegetation growth conditions are generally good and favorable for soybean growth.

Overall, soybean production in the three countries all showed an increasing trend, and subsequent weather evolution is unlikely to have a significant impact on final yields.

Table 1.4 Yield Forecast of Major Northern Hemisphere Soybean-Producing Countries (July–September 2026)