From July to September 2026, CropWatch focused on remote sensing monitoring of the sown area, yield, and production of wheat in four major wheat-producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere—Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Australia. The results indicate that wheat production in the Southern Hemisphere shifted from growth in 2025 to a marked decline. Across the four countries, wheat sown area decreased by 1.593 million ha, or 7.1%; the average yield was 2,757 kg/ha, down 1.1% from 2,789 kg/ha in 2025; and total wheat production was 57.09 million tons, a decrease of 5.09 million tons, or 8.2%, from 62.18 million tons in 2025. The contraction in area was the main factor behind this production decline, while the slight decline in yield further amplified the magnitude of the reduction (Table 1).

By country, Brazil recorded the largest percentage decline in production, while Argentina recorded the largest absolute decrease. In Argentina, the sown area was 6.415 million ha, down 6.8% from 2025; the yield was 3,504 kg/ha, basically unchanged (down 0.7%), and production was 22.48 million tons, down 7.4%, a decrease of about 1.81 million tons. Precipitation, low temperatures, and sunlight conditions during the subsequent grain-filling period remain important factors affecting final yield. In Brazil, a sharp contraction in wheat area combined with a slight decline in yield turned production from growth to decline: the sown area was 1.937 million ha, down 19.7% from 2025, the largest area decline among the four countries; the yield was 2,958 kg/ha, down 1.7%; and production was 5.73 million tons, down 21.1%, a decrease of about 1.53 million tons. In South Africa, the yield was 2,506 kg/ha, down 8.5%, the largest yield decline among the four countries; production was 1.59 million tons, down 12.3%, a decrease of about 0.23 million tons. Constraints in rainfed areas and below-normal precipitation in high-yield zones imposed clear limits on yield. Australia remained the largest producer among the four countries, with a yield of 2,329 kg/ha, basically unchanged (down 0.27%), and production of 27.285 million tons, down 5.3%, a decrease of about 1.531 million tons. The production decline mainly resulted from area reduction, with sown area down 5.06% from 2025.

Overall, the 2026 Southern Hemisphere wheat production decline was characterized mainly by "widespread area contraction and a moderate decline in yield." Against a background of inadequate irrigation infrastructure, climate remains the decisive variable for yield. Area elasticity continues to be driven by economic signals and relative price relationships, with the sharp decline in Brazil's wheat area particularly notable. If these production decline expectations materialize, exportable supplies from the Southern Hemisphere will tend to tighten compared with 2025. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in Argentina's stocks, harvest-season weather in Australia, and drought development in Brazil and South Africa.

Table 1 Production forecast for four major wheat-producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere, July–September 2026