During July–September 2026, Aman rice, the monsoon-season (Kharif) crop generally planted in May–June and harvested from September to December, was undergoing transplanting and subsequent growth. Aus rice, the summer crop sown from March to June and harvested from July to October, was progressively reaching maturity and being harvested. Preliminary CropWatch monitoring results indicated that the planted area of Aman rice was approximately 5.958 million hectares, with an average yield of 3,590 kg/ha and an estimated production of 21.39 million tonnes. Compared with the August forecast, yield and production estimates decreased by 8.0% and 8.1%, respectively (Figure 2.5).

Figure 2.5 Spatial distribution of Aman rice planted area (left) and yield (right) in Bangladesh

The planted area of Aus rice was approximately 1.008 million hectares. The updated yield estimate was approximately 3,896 kg/ha, with a total production of 3.93 million tonnes. Both yield and production estimates increased by 14.7% compared with the August forecast (Figure 2.6).

Figure 2.6 Spatial distribution of Aus rice planted area (left) and yield (right) in Bangladesh

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators showed that the RAIN reached 1,004 mm during the monitoring period, matching the 15-year average (15YA). The TEMP was 28.1°C, 0.2°C above average. The RADPAR was 576 MJ/m², 3% below average, while the BIOMASS was 1,441 gDM/m², 1% below average. Overall, rainfall was close to average, thermal conditions were generally normal, and radiation was slightly below average. The near-average BIOMASS indicated no substantial decline in climate-driven production potential at the national level.

Agronomic indicators showed that the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 98%, 11% above the five-year average (5YA). The maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 1.02, and the Crop Production Index (CroPI) was 1.16. Compared with the previous monitoring period, the positive CALF departure from the 5YA increased from 2% to 11%, while VCIx and CroPI rose from 0.75 and 0.84 to 1.02 and 1.16, respectively. These indicators suggested generally favorable crop cover and vegetation conditions, with an improvement from the relatively weak conditions observed earlier. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) increased from −3.85 to −1.64, further indicating improved moisture conditions, although localized drought signals persisted. Overall, improved crop conditions provided a favorable basis for subsequent Aman rice growth, but their effect on final yield remains to be assessed.

At the agro-ecological zone level, the Central Gangetic Plain recorded RAIN 3% below average and BIOMASS 1% below average. CALF reached 98%, VCIx was 1.00, and CroPI was 1.08, indicating generally favorable production conditions. In the Coastal region, RAIN was 7% above average, whereas RADPAR and BIOMASS were 7% and 1% below average, respectively. CALF was 94% and CroPI was 1.15, suggesting generally favorable planting and growth conditions. Nevertheless, subsequent rainfall and its effects on field drainage, crop maturity and harvesting require attention. In the Hill region, RAIN was 14% above average, BIOMASS was at the average level, and CroPI was 1.02, indicating generally stable production conditions. In the Sylhet Basin, RAIN was close to average, while VCIx reached 1.06 and CroPI was 1.26, indicating favorable vegetation conditions. However, BIOMASS remained 2% below average, suggesting that favorable vegetation conditions alone were insufficient to establish a year-on-year increase in yield.

Overall, crop cover and vegetation conditions in Bangladesh improved markedly compared with the previous monitoring period. National agroclimatic conditions were generally close to average, providing a favorable basis for subsequent Aman rice growth. However, the current Aman rice yield estimate remained below the August forecast. Whether the improvement in crop conditions translates into higher final production will depend on subsequent crop development and grain filling, requiring continued monitoring and assessment.