During July–September 2026, Kharif-season (monsoon-season) rice, maize and soybean in India entered vigorous growth and yield formation stages, while some early-sown maize and soybean crops progressively reached maturity and were harvested. CropWatch monitoring results indicated that the planted area of Kharif rice was approximately 43.101 million hectares, down 2.4% year on year. The average yield was approximately 5,269 kg/ha, up 9.0%, and total production was estimated at 227.1 million tonnes, up 6.4%. The planted area of maize was approximately 9.311 million hectares, down 1.9%, with an average yield of 3,632 kg/ha, down 3.0%, and estimated production of 33.82 million tonnes, down 4.9%. The planted area of soybean was approximately 12.235 million hectares, up 1.6%, with an average yield of 1,154 kg/ha, up 6.5%, and estimated production of 14.12 million tonnes, up 8.1%.

Figure 2.14 Spatial distribution of major Kharif-season crops and their yields in India

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators showed that the RAIN reached 690 mm during the monitoring period, 5% below the 15-year average (15YA). The TEMP was 27.5°C, 0.4°C above average. The RADPAR was 609 MJ/m², 3% below average, while the BIOMASS was 1,134 gDM/m², 8% below average. Compared with the previous monitoring period, the RAIN deficit narrowed from 14% to 5%, and the BIOMASS deficit narrowed from 11% to 8%. These changes indicated some improvement in national moisture conditions and climate-driven production potential, although both remained below average. Slightly above-average temperatures, insufficient radiation and rainfall deficits in some regions could still adversely affect yield formation and grain filling.

Agronomic indicators showed that the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 95%, 2% above the five-year average (5YA). The maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.93, and the Crop Production Index (CroPI) was 1.01. Compared with the previous monitoring period, the CALF departure shifted from 26% below the 5YA to 2% above it, while VCIx and CroPI increased from 0.68 and 0.61 to 0.93 and 1.01, respectively. These indicators suggested a marked improvement from the earlier weak planting and vegetation growth conditions, with generally favorable developments in national crop cover and growth. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) increased from −2.49 to −1.86, indicating some alleviation of drought conditions, although moisture limitations persisted in some regions. Overall, improved agronomic indicators were broadly consistent with favorable yield expectations for rice and soybean. However, national-level changes in crop conditions could not fully explain the differences in yield performance among crops.

At the agro-ecological zone level, the Central region recorded RAIN 5% below average, with RADPAR and BIOMASS 7% and 5% below average, respectively. Nevertheless, CALF reached 98%, 7% above the 5YA, while VCIx was 0.98 and CroPI was 1.09. These indicators suggested generally favorable crop cover and vegetation growth, supporting Kharif crops such as soybean. In the Northern Gangetic Plain, RAIN was 12% above average and BIOMASS was 2% above average. CALF was 98% and CroPI was 1.05, indicating relatively adequate moisture availability and generally favorable production conditions. In Northeastern India, BIOMASS was only 1% below average, CALF reached 99%, and CroPI was 1.05, suggesting overall production conditions close to normal.

In contrast, the Eastern coastal region recorded RAIN 11% below average, TEMP 1.0°C above average, and BIOMASS 16% below average. CALF was 85%, 2% below the 5YA, and CroPI was 0.96, indicating relatively unfavorable crop production conditions. In the Western coastal region, RAIN was 18% below average, TEMP was 0.8°C above average, BIOMASS was 21% below average, and PDSI was −3.56. Although VCIx of 0.95 and CroPI of 1.03 indicated generally satisfactory vegetation conditions, localized moisture deficits and their potential effects on yield formation remained a concern. Overall, agroclimatic and crop growth conditions varied among agro-ecological zones, with some coastal regions still affected by earlier unfavorable weather conditions.

Overall, national crop cover and vegetation growth conditions improved markedly compared with the previous monitoring period, with some alleviation of earlier planting constraints and water stress. Rice and soybean yields and production were expected to increase year on year, whereas maize yield and production were estimated to decline. However, national BIOMASS remained below average, and below-average rainfall combined with above-average temperatures in parts of the Eastern and Western coastal regions continued to pose risks to subsequent crop growth and yield formation. Further monitoring should focus on grain filling and maturity of late-maturing rice, as well as the actual harvest performance of maize and soybean.