From July to September 2026, due to variations in island climates, irrigation infrastructure, and multiple cropping systems, rice production across Indonesia did not follow a uniform phenological stage. Harvesting of the main-season rice crop was largely completed, with fields generally undergoing post-harvest fallowing or land preparation for subsequent sowing. Conversely, in rice-producing regions with adequate irrigation, such as Java, the second dry-season rice crop was predominantly in the sowing, transplanting, greening, tillering, and jointing stages, while certain early-sown fields advanced to the booting development stage.

During the monitoring period, Indonesia recorded a cumulative precipitation of 111 mm, representing a 71% decrease compared to the 15-year average for the same period and indicating a pronounced moisture deficit. While irrigated rice regions could partially mitigate the impact of insufficient rainfall, rainfed rice areas and fields currently in the tillering and jointing stages still face significant soil moisture pressure, where close attention to irrigation supply and drought risks remains critical. The average temperature was 27.4°C, which is 1.1°C higher than the long-term average. The overall thermal conditions were abundant, facilitating the tillering, jointing, and panicle differentiation of the rice crops. Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) reached 847 MJ/m², a 7% increase from the average, reflecting generally favorable solar radiation conditions. However, the potential cumulative biomass stood at 571 gDM/m², down by 43% compared to the long-term average. This indicates that moisture stress triggered by below-average precipitation has significantly restricted dry matter accumulation, which may subsequently impede booting, grain filling, and final yield formation.

Agronomic indicators reveal that the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 5% compared to the five-year average for this period. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.88, and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.97. These metrics suggest that the overall condition of the planted rice is comparable to recent years, and the abundant thermal and solar radiation conditions provide a solid foundation for maintaining and slightly improving crop yields.

In summary, while abundant thermal conditions and favorable solar radiation levels are conducive to boosting rice yields, the combination of significantly below-average precipitation, intensified moisture stress, and a sharp decline in potential cumulative biomass remains a core constraint on late-stage yield formation. CropWatch monitoring results indicate that during the monitoring period, the planted rice area in Indonesia was 1.502 million hectares, a decrease of 4.68% compared to the same period in 2025. The yield was 3,911 kg/ha, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.79%, while total production stood at 5.873 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 1.07%. Although the improvement in yield partially mitigated the impact of the reduced planting area, it was insufficient to entirely offset the production losses. Consequently, the contraction in cultivated area remains the primary driver behind the year-on-year decline in total rice production.

Figure 2.15 Distribution of Dry-Season Rice in Indonesia, 2026