CropWatch monitoring results indicate that Mexico's maize planted area was approximately 9,356 thousand hectares, up 0.6% year on year; the average yield was 2,411 kg/ha, down 6.7% year on year; and total production is forecast at 22.56 million tonnes, down about 6.1% year on year, with the decline mainly driven by lower yields.

During the monitoring period, nationwide cumulative precipitation in Mexico was 302 mm, significantly 36% below the 15-year average; the average temperature was 24.2°C, 1.1°C above normal; and photosynthetically active radiation was 921 MJ/m², slightly 2% above normal. Overall agro-meteorological conditions showed a "dry and hot" pattern, with potential cumulative biomass at 948 gDM/m². Crop conditions remained fair in irrigated areas and areas with good pre-season soil moisture, while rainfed crops were constrained in late-season growth. July precipitation was close to normal and supported crop growth, whereas water supply weakened markedly in August–September; combined with persistently above-normal temperatures that raised evapotranspiration, this hindered maize pollination and grain filling and led to lower yields. Regional differences were pronounced: the Humid tropics with summer rainfall zone experienced the strongest water–heat stress; the Arid and semi-arid regions zone showed structural water deficits and the highest crop stress; the Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains zone had the most favourable conditions; and the Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains zone was buffered by cooler temperatures, with moderate risk.

Figure 2.18 Mexico Maize Distribution Map, 2026