Bulletin

CropWatch bulletin
2.14 PakistanCountries Outlook

Authors: limengxiao | Edit: qinxl

During the monitoring period (July to September 2026), rice and maize were growing and entering the early harvest stage of the Kharif season in Pakistan. Agroclimatic conditions were generally drier and warmer than average nationwide. CropWatch monitoring shows accumulated precipitation of 119 mm, 54% below the average for the same period over the past 15 years, and a mean air temperature of 32.3 °C, 0.9 °C above average. Photosynthetically active radiation was 2% above average, while accumulated potential biomass was 28% below average. Moisture shortages were the main constraint on crop growth. The Pakistan Meteorological Department's monsoon review also reported below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures during this period, consistent with the direction of the moisture and temperature anomalies identified by CropWatch.

Drought stress was more severe in the south and relatively mild in the north. In Balochistan and the Lower Indus region, precipitation was 94% and 77% below average, respectively, while accumulated potential biomass was 38% and 37% below average. In Balochistan, the cropped arable land fraction was only 21% and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.58, indicating considerable pressure on agricultural production. In Northern Punjab, the cropped arable land fraction reached 93% and VCIx was 0.89, indicating relatively stable crop conditions. In the Northern Highlands, precipitation and potential biomass were 23% and 7% below average, respectively, with a comparatively mild moisture deficit. Nationally, the cropped arable land fraction was 84%, unchanged from the average for the same period over the past 5 years. VCIx was 0.84 and the crop production index (CroPI) was 1.11, indicating that cultivation activity and crop conditions retained some support.

By crop, CropWatch indicates yield changes of +2.68% for rice and +2.66% for maize, both showing modest positive signals. Within the respective monitoring areas for rice and maize, the cropped arable land fraction increased by 0.91% and 2.09% relative to the same period last year, respectively, indicating increased cultivation activity in the areas concerned. Overall, agroclimatic conditions during this period were drier and warmer than average, with pronounced moisture stress in the south. Relatively good crop conditions in the north and broadly stable cultivation activity nationwide provided some support for crop production.