July–September 2026 is a critical period for yield formation, crop maturation, and harvesting of maize and soybeans in the United States. In July, maize is primarily in the tasseling and pollination stages, enters the grain-filling stage in August, and gradually matures, with harvesting beginning in September. Soybeans undergo flowering, pod formation, and seed filling during July and August, followed by progressive maturation and harvesting in September. Overall, U.S. maize and soybean production in 2026 remains relatively stable, with a slight decline in maize production and a modest increase in soybean production.

National agroclimatic conditions were generally favorable. During the reporting period, the average national precipitation was 233.7 mm, 8.2% above the 15-year average. The mean temperature was 24.1°C, 1.1°C above average, while photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) totaled 851.4 MJ/m², 3.9% below average. Increased precipitation generally improved soil moisture availability across major agricultural regions, supporting maize pollination and grain filling as well as soybean flowering and pod formation. However, above-average temperatures increased evaporative demand, while below-average solar radiation may have somewhat constrained the accumulation of photosynthetic products. The national mean Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was 0.33, indicating near-normal moisture conditions overall, while meteorological drought conditions eased across approximately 27.1% of the country.

Crop conditions were generally good nationwide, and the overall production outlook was better than normal. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was 90%, 1 percentage point below the average for the same period over the past five years. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.88, and the Crop Production Index (CroPI) was 1.06. Maize and soybeans were in their vigorous growth and critical yield-formation stages during July and August, with NDVI values remaining generally high. NDVI gradually declined in September as the crops matured and harvesting progressed.

These indicators suggest that crop growth conditions were generally favorable nationwide, although substantial regional differences persisted. Favorable weather in the Corn Belt and the Northeast provided important support for national maize and soybean production. Precipitation was 23.5% above average in the Corn Belt and 11.0% above average in the Northeast, while temperatures were 0.9°C and 0.3°C above average, respectively. Adequate moisture supply supported maize pollination and grain filling, as well as soybean pod formation and seed filling. However, PAR was 5.9% and 3.4% below average in the two regions, respectively, potentially limiting dry matter accumulation to some extent. Agroclimatic conditions in the Southeast and the Great Plains were generally near normal, supporting relatively stable crop growth.

CropWatch yield forecasts indicate that overall U.S. maize and soybean production in 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable, although the two crops show different production trends. Maize acreage is projected at 34.779 million hectares, up 0.30% year on year, while yield is estimated at 11,588.9 kg/ha, down 0.69%. Total maize production is forecast at 403.05 million tonnes, a year-on-year decline of 0.39%. Soybean acreage is projected at 35.190 million hectares, down 1.18% year on year, while yield is estimated at 3,872.5 kg/ha, up 1.67%. Total soybean production is forecast at 136.27 million tonnes, an increase of 0.46% year on year, with the yield gain offsetting the reduction in planted area and resulting in a slight increase in total production.

Table 2.7. Estimates of U.S. Maize and Soybean Production in 2026 (2025–2026)