Cropland is on the dry side this period, with soil moisture below average, and the high-risk area of water stress has continued to expand since July; yet the global CroPI-7 of 1.12, above the baseline and the 1.05 of the same period in 2025, indicates that the water shortage has not yet been transmitted to impacts on food production. The 2026/27 El Niño is expected to peak around December; over the next three months, temperature and rainfall patterns will act simultaneously on the autumn harvest and winter sowing in the Northern Hemisphere, the grain filling and harvest of Southern Hemisphere wheat, and the rice season transition in the tropics — the risk window is more dispersed than the yield-formation period, and will ultimately determine the pattern of the 2026 food production situation.

The Northern Hemisphere enters the parallel period of harvest and winter sowing in October–November. The US Corn Belt is on the wet side, with PAR about 4% below average; rainfall during the harvest period affects field progress and grain quality. China's Huanghuaihai is dry and warm and the lower Yangtze is rainy with low sunshine; prolonged rain during the autumn harvest and the sowing dates of late-sown wheat warrant focused attention. Ukraine's expected production increase is now essentially weather-secured; the delivery risk has shifted to harvest operations and export logistics. In south-central Europe, the US Southern Great Plains, the northeastern side of the northern Black Sea coast to the North Caucasus, and China's Huanghuaihai, October–December is the winter-wheat sowing-to-emergence period, during which the drought forecast for Europe indicates further intensification (see Section 1.1.3 (3)); rainfall deficits at sowing would cause uneven emergence and delayed sowing, with effects extending to the 2027 summer grain.

Southern Hemisphere wheat is dominated by area contraction (−7.1%); rainfall and high temperatures during grain filling to harvest in October–November will determine yield levels, with focus on the water–heat conditions of Argentina's grain-filling period, the northern edge of Australia's southwestern wheat belt, and the rainfed zones of South Africa.

For the tropics and the new Southern Hemisphere season, the focus shifts from rainfall to irrigation security and the onset of the rainy season. After the Kharif harvest India turns to the Rabi season, and after the Aman harvest Bangladesh turns to the Boro season; both shift from rainfed to irrigation-dependent production, making reservoir storage and river inflows more critical than the total monsoon-season rainfall. Indonesia received rainfall 71% below average, with the heaviest residual moisture deficit among the five countries; next season's area depends on irrigation. New-season maize sowing in Southern Africa from November and the short rainy season (October–December) on the East African highlands depend on the timing of the rainy-season onset. Note that the alleviation of meteorological drought and the recovery of soil moisture and reservoir storage are not synchronized; high-risk zones identified in July–September (East Africa and Madagascar, the eastern Sahel, eastern Brazil, southern Europe and southern Russia) may still experience lagged effects in the short term.

Priorities for the next monitoring period:

① The impact of Northern Hemisphere autumn-harvest weather on harvest progress and grain quality;

② Soil moisture for winter-wheat sowing and emergence, with focus on south-central Europe, the southern Black Sea coast to the North Caucasus, the US Southern Great Plains and China's Huanghuaihai;

③ Water–heat conditions during Southern Hemisphere wheat grain filling–harvest, and yield revisions;

④ Reservoir storage and water-supply capacity in the major irrigation zones after the monsoon retreat;

⑤ Concurrent drought–flood risks under the atypical teleconnection of El Niño, and their implications for the next CroPI reassessment.