During the monitoring period, few crops were in the field except for winter wheat growing in the northeast and northern parts of the Lower Yangtze region. In general, crop condition was slightly below average over the reporting period.

The CropWatch agro-climatic indicators (Figure 4.9) show that rainfall was far above average (+110%) and temperature was slightly above (+0.4°C).Although RADPAR decreased by 22% compared to average, favorable rainfall andtemperature conditions brought about a marked increase of BIOMSS in the region(>20%). The BIOMSS departure map also shows values at least 20% above average in most parts of the Lower Yangtze region.

The average value of maximum VCI in the whole region was 0.87, with VCIx values larger than 0.8 appearing in the central and southern parts of the region. According to the graph of spatial NDVI patterns compared to the five-year average and corresponding NDVI profiles, about 59% of crops were continuously close to the recent five-year average level over the reporting period. Other areas show variable conditions. CropWatch estimates that the yield of winter wheat in the region will be average.

Figure4.13. Crop condition Lower Yangtze region, October 2015-January 2016

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(b)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                   (c)NDVI profiles

(d)Maximum VCI                                                             (e)Biomass