At the national and sub-national levels, the countries that underwent the most severe levels of environmental stress can be subdivided into several group, which confirm the patterns identified in chapter 1 but also but also provide additional detail more closely related to the likely outcome of the growing seasons.     

The countries and sub-countries that suffered mostly from drought are located in (2) south-east Asia to New-Zealand and (1) northern south America, both à -56% of rainfall on average. (1) The first group includes the Guyanas (Suriname, -70%; Guyana,  -62%; Trinidad and Tobago, -53% as well as Dominica with -49%). The area covers as well several states in Brazil, such as Roraima (-78%), Amapa (-71%), Para (-52%), Maranhao (-50%) and Amazonas (-32%). While almost all of them score low on the biomass production potential (-45% on average) and high on RADPAR (+5% on average), other agroclimatic indicators are close to average, with some exceptions such as tempera

Figure 3.1. Global map of October 2015-January 2016rainfall (RAIN) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 14YA(percentage)

Figure 3.2. Global map of October 2015-January 2016temperature (TEMP) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 14YA(degrees)

Figure 3.3. Global map of October 2015-January 2016PAR (RADPAR) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 14YA (percentage)

Figure 3.4. Global map of October 2015-January 2016biomass (BIOMSS) by country and sub-national areas, departure from 14YA(percentage)

At the national and sub-national levels, the countries that underwentthe most severe levels of environmental stress can be subdivided into several groups,which confirm the patterns identified in Chapter 1 but also but also provideadditional detail more closely related to the likely outcome of the growingseasons. Figure 3.1 lists CropWatch agronomic and agroclimatic indicatorsfor the monitoring period.

Table 3.1. CropWatchagroclimatic and agronomic indicatorsfor October 2015-January 2016, departure from 5YA and 14YA

The countries and sub-countries that suffered mostly from drought arelocated in (1) northern South America and (2) south-east Asia to New Zealandboth at approximately -56% of rainfall on average: (1) The first group includesthe Guyanas (Suriname, -70%; Guyana,  -62%; Trinidad and Tobago, -53% aswell as Dominica, -49%). This area also covers several states in Brazil, suchas Roraima (-78%), Amapa (-71%), Para (-52%), Maranhao (-50%) and Amazonas(-32%). While almost all of them score low on the biomass production potential(-45% on average) and high on RADPAR (+5% on average), other agroclimaticindicators are close to average, with some exceptions such as temperature inFrench Guyana (-1.2°C), and sunshine in Para and Amazonas (+10% and +11%,respectively), two areas where rainfall should nevertheless have beensufficient for normal crop development.

Group (2) includes New Zealand (-66% precipitation), New Caledonia(-60%) and Timor Leste (-57%) as well as the Australian states of Tasmania(-75%) and Victoria (-45%), which deserve a mention in the area from SoutheastAsia through to New Zealand. With the exception of temperature in New Caledonia(-1.3°C), all other agroclimatic variables behave as expected, in particular abiomass production potential drop of 46%.

(3) Dry conditions also prevailed in the northern part of the Indiansubcontinent, with an average precipitation departure of -52% affectingBangladesh and Bhutan (-38% and -37%, respectively) as well as the followingareas in India: Meghalaya (-81%), Jharkhand (-80%), West Bengal (-73%),Bihar (-60%). Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Gujarat, Sikkim, Rajasthan, MadhyaPradesh, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh recorded rainfall deficits between -59% and-34%. Other agroclimatic variables are close to average, except for a biomassproduction drop expected to reach 42% on average. In Bhutan, however, the dropwould reach only 5% due to more favorable temperature than adjacent areas inIndia.

(4) Most Mediterranean countries, which all grow winter crops, plantedat the end of the year suffered a marked drop in precipitation close to 50%. Thisincludes mostly Morocco (-74%), Portugal (-55%) and Lebanon (-54%), as well asSpain, Tunisia, Syria, Montenegro, Cyprus, Libya, Israel and Greece, withdeficit values ranging from -51% to -35%. Civil unrest is an aggravating factorin several of them, but due to the fact that firstly, several months are stillneeded until the harvest, and secondly, low or no water consumption stillprevails for the dormant crops, the outcome of the season will depend onrainfall during the coming months.  For the reporting period, the biomasspotential drop averages 29%. Morocco, Syria and Lebanon all recorded abnormallyhigh temperatures (0.9°C, 1.0°C and 1.9°C, respectively). This has increasedevaporation and may negatively impact future soil water availability.

(5) In addition to California (-37% precipitation over the reportingperiod), several areas in the north-eastern USA and Canada suffered fromunusually dry conditions with deficits ranging from -52% (Maine) to -39%(Massachusetts). The vegetation and crops in the area, which also includesNewfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Hampshire, New Brunswick, Vermontand New Jersey is unlikely to suffer due to the early winter drought.

(6) Several countries in Africa, even with a water stress that is lowcompared with the previous countries, are more likely to suffer due to thesemi-arid conditions and inherently more fragile farming systems. They includemostly Lesotho (-44%), Zimbabwe (-42%), Malawi (-36%) and Namibia (-29%). Othercountries in the area (particularly South Africa, Botswana) are at deficitlevels close to 25% on average. Rwanda deserves a particular mention in thecurrent context (-35%) in the light of the social and political tensionprevailing in the region.

(7) The last area to be mentioned includes the larger Baltic, i.e. theBaltic States as well as the adjacent Russian areas to the east. Low rainfallwas accompanied by large positive RADPAR values and positive temperatureanomalies, which, similar to the situation in the Mediterranean countries, maynegatively affect soil moisture availability in the coming months depending onthe amounts of rainfall still to come between now and the time of harvest. Rainfallin other countries also saw a decrease, for example Estonia (-41%) and Latvia(-37%) with the area of S. Petersburg in Russia (-48%) and several areas to theeast including Moscow, Adygeya Republic, Tverskaya and Pskovskaya Oblasts whichrecord deficits between 37% and 32%.