This monitoringperiod includes the end of the harvest of spring-summer crops, and all cropshad been harvested by the end of November 2015. In general, the crop conditionas assessed by the NDVI (Figure 3.9) looks average at this monitoring stage.

Warm yet dry agroclimaticconditions were common during the monitoring period. Rainfall over agriculturalareas was 15% below average while temperature was significantly above (+2.4°C).As a result, soil moisture shortage may become a more serious issue due tocontinued drought, which may negatively affect the coming planting season in2016. The RAIN and TEMP indicators for the three main agricultural provinces ofCanada are as follows: Alberta, -17% and +2.1°C; Manitoba, +13% and +3.5°C;Saskatchewan, +3% and +3.2°C.

As mentioned in thelast two CropWatch Bulletins, two of the major crop production provinces ofCanada, Alberta and Manitoba suffered serious drought during the key growthstage of spring-summer crops, resulting in lower crop production in 2015; therelatively high NDVI values in this monitoring period may have resulted in thedelayed harvest of summer crops in 2015.

The cropped arableland fraction (CALF) decreased by 2% compared to last five-year average.

Figure3.9. Canada crop condition, October 2015-January 2016

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

                                         (b) Maximum VCI

(c) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA

                                                         d) NDVI profiles