Winter crops, essentially barley and wheat,were harvested in November and December, and the summer crops have reached mid-season stages by the end of this reporting period. Nationwide, rainfall from October was well below average (-26%), with slightly above-average temperature (+1.4°C) and increased radiation (+1%). For the period under consideration,and compared with the previous five cropping seasons, the biomass production potential fell 27% and cropped arable land fraction value was 12% below the reference values.

VCIx did not exceed 0.48. Conditions are close to average (but deteriorating) in about one third of agricultural areas only which, at the time of reporting, include Eastvaal district in Mpumalanga and Westcoast district and the southern Western Cape. The least favourable conditions are recorded in about 21% of cropped areas, especially in the northern Free State. They extend into the north-western province. The driestareas suffered most in relative terms, with biomass production potential drops between 25% and 75% according to zone. Given the overall rather gloomyprospects for the current summer season, especially maize, in South Africa, itis worth nothing that a relative improvement has affected about 10% of the national cropland, mostly in Kwazulu-Natal in December and January, where NDVI however remains below average. With national NDVI values 0.2 units below average, prospects for the current summer crop can only be poor to very poor. Refer to section 5.2 for additional detail.

Figure3.34. South Africa crop condition, October2015-January 2016

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI             (b) maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (d) NDVI profile