Argentina

The monitoring period covers the sowing and growing of winter wheat in Argentina. The sowing of maize and rice also started in the end of October, and wheat is approaching its maturity stage. For soybean the reporting period was outside the growing season. 

Overall conditions are favorable for the country as a whole. RAIN was slightly below average (-5%), while radiation (RADPAR) was 9% below, which is significant. With the slightly above average temperature (TEMP, +0.4°C), the potential biomass (BIOMSS) was at an average level compared with its five-year average. Conditions for each province can be categorized into three group: (1) water deficit in Buenos Aires (RAIN, -25%), Cordoba (-37%), La Pampa (-32%), San Luis (-47%), Tucuman (-54%), and Salta (-36%); (2) average RAIN in Chaco, Corrientes, and Santa Fe; and (3) excess precipitation in Entre Rios (31% above average), Misiones (+41%), and Santiago Del Estero (+30%). High temperature was observed in Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, and Misiones. Meanwhile, all provinces suffered from radiation shortage, ranging from RADPAR -3% in Tucuman to -14% in Santiago Del Estero. Altogether, climatic conditions resulted in significantly above average BIOMSS in Entre Rios and Santiago Del Estero, and well below average BIOMSS in Cordoba, La Pampa, Salta, and Tucuman. Due to the drought impact, winter wheat yield and production in Buenos Aires and Cordoba was below that of the previous year. Refer to Table B.1 in Annex B for detailed production numbers by province. 

The NDVI based crop condition development graph for the country was above the previous five-year average during the monitoring period, indicating a promising outlook for winter wheat yield nationally. According to the NDVI departure clustering analysis, crops were generally above the five-year average in the areas along the Parana River and central Buenos Aires. Below average NDVI mostly occurred in the northern part of Cordoba and central Salta due to the shortage of rainfall. Low VCIx values were also observed in those areas. High VCIx values concentrated in the Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and Corrientes provinces. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) from July to October was 7% above average, but the wheat planted area was still below that of the previous year. Cropping intensity during the past 12 months was also 7% below average, indicating a decrease in total planted area. 

In summary, despite low rainfall hampering the development of winter wheat, the major wheat province--Buenos Aires--still produces a slightly above average wheat output. CropWatch puts wheat production at 11,740 ktons, 1% above the previous years, mostly as a result of increased yield. The unevenly distributed rainfall during the reporting period, however, could still affect planting and development of summer crops. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Argentina, among which five are relevant for crops cultivation. These five regions are the Chaco zone (6), Pampas (7), Mesopotamia (8), Pampas mountains zone (9), and Tropical highland zone (10). They are identified by these numbers in the VCIx map.

All regions received below average RADPAR (-6% to -12%). Below average RAIN in the Pampas, Pampas mountains, and Tropical Highland zone hampered the development of crops as confirmed by the relatively low VCIx compared with the other two zones (Chaco zone and Mesopotamia) where RAIN was 7% and 17% above average, respectively. Mesopotamia presents the highest VCIx (0.91) among the zones. The conditions in Pampas, Pampas Mountains zone, and Tropical Highland zone are generally unfavorable as indicated by significantly below average BIOMSS. CALF in all regions was above its five-year average, with a large positive departure observed in the Chaco and Tropical Highland zones. According to the NDVI profiles by zone, crop condition in Chaco, Mesopotamia, and Pampas was generally above average during the wheat growing period, while NDVI was below average for the other two regions. 

Figure 3.5. Argentina crop condition, July-October 2017

Figure 3.5a. Calender of major crops for Argentina

Figure 3.5b. Argentina national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI(right), comparing the July-October 2017 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximumVCI (left)

Figure 3.5d. Argentina spatial NDVI patterns up to October 2017 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure 3.5f. Chaco region (Argentina) crop condition development graph based on NDVI (right) Pampas region (Argentina) (left)

Figure 3.5h. Mesopotamia region (Argentina) crop condition development graph based on NDVI(right)Pampas mountain region (Argentina) (left)

Figure 3.5j. Tropical highland region (Argentina) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.2.  Argentina agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.3. Argentina agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2017

Table 3.4. CropWatch-estimated maize, rice, wheat, and soybean production for Argentina in 2017 (thousand tons)